#bangladesh #pakistan #china #IndiaBangladesh #SouthAsia #CPEC #BRI #StringOfPearls #IndianForeignPolicy #GeopoliticalAnalysis A great churning is taking place on both sides of India’s frontiers, throwing a new challenge to the RSS idea of “akhand Bharat,” or “undivided subcontinent.” In the east, a…

A great churning is taking place on both sides of India’s frontiers, throwing a new challenge to the RSS idea of “akhand Bharat,” or “undivided subcontinent.” In the east, a new samudramanthan is taking place around the Bay of Bengal, as Naya Bangladesh reaches out to both China and Pakistan like it hasn’t for decades. And in Pakistan, the powerful Army Chief looks like he fancies himself as a latter-day Jinnah, delivering homilies about the so-called “two-nation theory” and such like.

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Let’s start with Bangladesh. For the first time in 15 years, Pakistani officials have travelled to Dhaka this week for consultations, during which the Bangladesh foreign secretary demanded an apology for the “genocide committed by the then Pakistan military in 1971.” Plus, he said, $4.3 billion still remains to be paid when East Pakistan split from Pakistan — with, of course, a little help from India, although the foreign secretary didn’t quite add the last phrase.

Moreover, in less than 10 days from now, Pakistan’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will travel to Dhaka. Mr Dar is a consummate politician and is expected to easily find some way to say sorry for the massacres the Pakistani military committed in 1971 — he will be careful that the apology doesn’t offend his all-powerful military chief, Gen Asim Munir, back home.

When that apology takes place — not if, but when — the two former wings of Pakistan will be closer than they have been in decades.

Imagine a 53-year-long reversal of history-in-the-making. Make no mistake, dear Reader, the stage is being set, only the flowers and some knick-knacks to prettify the room remain. When Dar meets Bangladesh Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus — whom the Americans kept ready in cotton-balls, waiting for the opportunity to insert him back into a post-Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh, and more fool she who gave them the opportunity — the Bangladeshis, with a gentle nudge from the Chinese, will graciously accept. It’s that simple.

Meanwhile, Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s pet phrase could get a new lease of life. At a function in Rawalpindi on Thursday, Gen Munir said Pakistan was created on the basis of the “two-nation theory,” even as his suited-booted Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif listened in the front row.

“Our forefathers thought we are different from the Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. That we are two nations, we are not one nation…” Gen Munir said.

Clearly, the good General imagines himself as a latter-day Quaid-e-Azam that Pakistan needs, to save itself for another day. Not that Pakistan doesn’t need saving — things are so bad, both in the economy as well as in the polity, that the military establishment could easily be misconstrued as the brightest, shining star on the horizon — it is certainly the most powerful.

Meanwhile, we saw PM Shehbaz Sharif hearing Gen Munir out quietly, as he rested two fingers on his cheek. Was he, already, sequestering to the back of his brain his elder brother Nawaz Sharif’s efforts to improve ties with India, for which he was whipped with iron chains in Attock jail soon after Musharraf invaded Kargil — because Shehbaz knows he cannot remain in power without Munir’s munificence?

But the big question this weekend is whether you can have a hearty laugh with irony. Will you be foes or comrades? So the same Bangladesh now reaching out to Pakistan, 53 years ago consigned the “two-nation theory” to the trash of history with a whoop and a chuckle as it belted out “Joy Bangla!” in the face of machine-gun fire from West Pakistani soldiers.

Today, as Yunus furiously cycles back to the past and Gen Munir intones the idea of separation — an idea that ironically finds much traction in present-day India — Bangladeshis seem to be resurrecting the importance of religion and geopolitics over language.

Only two days ago, Yunus’ foreign affairs advisor rudely told off India to manage its affairs better and look after its minority population in neighbouring West Bengal — referring to the violence in Murshidabad. Understandably, New Delhi is furious. But all the MEA spokesperson could add was that Bangladeshis better look inwards and protect their own Hindu minority.

That’s the basic problem with both the Partition as well as “akhand Bharat.” The subcontinent is so messily diverse that drawing the line anywhere — or by anyone, whether Radcliffe, McMahon or Durand — is going to end up being an exercise in haphazardness. Someone or the other is going to be so hurt or angry or both that they are bound to remember.

And so back to the present. Remember Yunus’ day out in Beijing some weeks ago where he told Chinese businessmen to come and invest, and that he was ready to hand over the Bay of Bengal to them?

Meanwhile, some things, however much they change, remain the same, and one example of that is the China-Pakistan relationship — described by Pakistani leaders over the decades as “higher than the mountains, deeper than the seas and sweeter than honey.” China is not just Pakistan’s biggest defence partner, it is its patron; it builds it roads and sea-ports, from the Karakoram highway to Gwadar on the Arabian Sea; it is connecting the country via the Belt & Road Initiative. From missiles to safety-pins, the Chinese are making in China and the Pakistanis are buying.

So on one side of India a China-friendly Pakistan asserts itself, and on the other side a China-friendly Bangladesh. Already, the spectre of Bangladesh and Pakistan forgiving each other for their past sins and moving on is apparent. In the middle is India, with severed diplomatic relations with Pakistan and a deteriorating relationship with Bangladesh.

So as a renewed churning takes place across the subcontinent, the key question that asks itself is, not just how the Narendra Modi government will deal with these challenges without, but what are the implications of these events within?