INDIA, the newly formed Opposition alliance against Prime Minster Narendra Modi, has brought a no-confidence motion against the government in the Lok Sabha. The debate on the motion will begin on August 8. This will force (or so they hope) the Prime Minister to speak on a subject he is presently avoiding to speak on, and understandably so.
In the next Lok Sabha elections, Manipur is going to be a major spoiler for the ruling party.
The acronym INDIA was created by the principal Opposition parties after the realisation that they were pitted against just one man — PM Modi. He alone propelled the BJP to power and as long as he led the ruling party, the Opposition, both individually and collectively, would be shoved aside by the voters. Hence came the interesting move of forming INDIA, a conglomeration which includes unlikely bedfellows such as AAP, Trinamool Congress and the Congress. Thus was born the idea of INDIA v/s Modi or, rather, Modi v/s INDIA.
By insisting that a dedicated debate in the House on the happenings in Manipur and the inability of the state government to bring the mayhem under control should start with a statement by the PM, the Lok Sabha was virtually shut down for several days. There is no rule requiring the PM to speak when the minister concerned — in this case, Home Minister Amit Shah — was prepared to make the statement on behalf of the government.
But INDIA wanted to corner the PM because it was against him and not the BJP that it had to contest in the 2024 polls. And on the subject of Manipur, PM Modi and the party he leads were not on solid ground. Hence the impasse in the Lok Sabha.
I pity PM Modi on such occasions! He is usually so confident of himself and self-assured. He revels in publicity and praise. He is not used to embarrassment, even though a Prime Minister of a country so vast and complicated like ours will inevitably be confronted by adversity at different times. The outbreak of Covid-19 was one such occasion. Our Prime Minister made many mistakes, which have been listed in Harsh Mander’s book Burning Pyres, Mass Graves. The people of India have forgiven him for those mistakes because his good intentions and desire to meet the calamity head-on could not be doubted. But his failure to think of the plight of the migrant labourers will blot his copybook.
There was no experience of a newly discovered pandemic to draw on. The BJP’s public relations cell did a great job of getting the Prime Minister off the hook. He was given credit for feeding the poor migrant labourers who were forced to walk hundreds of kilometres to their homes as they were left homeless and penniless by the sudden, unexpected shutdown following the Covid outbreak. In my city, caring individuals (one of them was my daughter) organised rations for the migrants for nearly a month. The BJP’s IT cell gave the populace the impression that it was the government which had achieved that mission of mercy at the instance of the PM! I cannot comment on other cities in India, but I can say with confidence that this was not the case in Mumbai.
Manipur will present a difficult test for the BJP. There is no doubt in any reasonable Indian’s mind that the government in the state has failed. People are convinced that the N Biren Singh government is incompetent. Its police force, starting with the leadership, needs to be overhauled. It’s obvious that it is hopelessly politicised. It failed to even put the law into motion when women were publicly disrobed and raped in the presence of policemen.
It failed to prevent the loot of its armoury when 4,000-odd weapons were forcibly snatched, along with ammunition. The surmise is that the policemen were complicit in allowing the criminals to loot the weapons. I think that the force was outnumbered and the personnel feared for their lives. This steep decline in policemen’s morale and performance has not been witnessed anywhere else in the country earlier. That the men on duty did not offer any resistance at all is a sad commentary on the leadership of such a force.
Since the BJP leadership at the Centre is standing solidly behind its CM in Imphal and hesitating to replace him and since the counsellor the Central leadership had planted in Imphal to guide Biren Singh on governance matters has obviously failed miserably to measure up, the Home Minister must step in and take charge. Manipur shares its border with Myanmar. The Chinese are there to keep us on our toes. The country can ill afford to neglect security issues in the North-East.
The Kukis have relatives across the border in Myanmar. They keep crossing over to our side just as the Kukis here keep going that side. I have learnt that the Army had an unwritten agreement with the Myanmarese army that such movements across the border should not go beyond 16 km on either side. But after the recent bout of hostilities between Kukis and Meiteis, the Manipur Government had raised red flags.
The reason for the state government to object was that the cultivation of the poppy plant and trading in drugs were prevalent among the tribals populating the hill areas. Just like the Afghans who cultivate poppy to sustain the informal economy in that blighted land, our hill dwellers do not have scope for economic advancement except by such means. Since the poppy plants can only lead finally to the manufacture of opium, the authorities can shut their eyes only at the cost of a major calamity.
In the next Lok Sabha polls, Manipur is going to be a major spoiler for the ruling party. PM Modi knows this and hence his tactical silence on the subject. He must be cursing himself for setting up a double-engine government in Imphal so soon. Perhaps a little later, after a victory in 2024, would have been the correct time. But he is a man in a hurry!
The BJP had succeeded in winning over the Nagas, the Mizos and the Sangma government in Meghalaya, despite the hatred and unalloyed enmity of the party’s fringe towards beef-eaters. The PM adopted a practical approach and indicated that the Sangh Parivar would not interfere with the eating habits and religious practices of the people of the North-East — in return for their votes. He had made similar attempts in Kerala, where two prominent Bishops had signed up.
That bonhomie has diminished after the happenings in Manipur. PM Modi is going through a bad patch.