What’s Russian President Vladimir Putin thinking? JOHN LEICESTER Will President Vladimir Putin pull the nuclear trigger? For Kremlin watchers trying to figure out whether the Russian leader’s nuclear threats are just bluffs, there is no more pressing — or tough — question. For now, analysts cautiously suggest that the risk of Putin using the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal still seems low. The CIA says it hasn’t seen signs of an imminent Russian nuclear attack. Still, his vows to use “ all the means at our disposal “ to defend Russia as he wages war in Ukraine are being taken very seriously. And his claim on Friday that the United States “created a precedent” by dropping atomic bombs in World War II further cranked up the nuclear stakes. The White House has warned of “catastrophic consequences for Russia” if Putin goes nuclear. But whether that will stay Putin’s hand is anyone’s guess. Nervous Kremlin watchers acknowledge they can’t be sure what he is thinking or even if he’s rational and well-informed. The former KGB agent has demonstrated an appetite for risk and brinkmanship. It’s hard, even for Western intelligence agencies with spy satellites, to tell if Putin is bluffing or truly intent on breaking the nuclear taboo. “We don’t see any practical evidence today in the US intelligence community that he’s moving closer to actual use, that there’s an imminent threat of using tactical nuclear weapons,” CIA Director William Burns told CBS News. “What we have to do is take it very seriously, watch for signs of actual preparations,” Burns said. Kremlin watchers are scratching their heads in part because they don’t see how nuclear force could greatly help reverse Russia’s military losses in Ukraine. Ukrainian troops aren’t using large concentrations of tanks to wrest back ground, and combat is sometimes for places as small as villages. So what could Russian nuclear forces aim for with winning effect? “Nuclear weapons are not a magic wand,” said Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at the UN’s Institute for Disarmament Research, who specialises in nuclear risk. “They are not something that you just employ and they solve all your problems.” Analysts hope the taboo that surrounds nuclear weapons is a disincentive. The horrific scale of human suffering in Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the US destroyed the Japanese cities with atomic bombs on August 6 and August 9, 1945, was a powerful argument against a repeat use of such weapons. The attacks killed 210,000 people. No country has since used a nuclear weapon. Analysts guess that even Putin may find it difficult to become the first world leader since US President Harry Truman to rain down nuclear fire. “It is still a taboo in Russia to cross that threshold,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND Corp. and a former analyst of Russian military capabilities at the US Defense Department. “One of the biggest decisions in the history of Earth,” Baklitskiy said. The backlash could turn Putin into a global pariah. “Breaking the nuclear taboo would impose, at a minimum, complete diplomatic and economic isolation on Russia,” said Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher with the Royal United Services Institute in London that specializes in defense and security. Long-range nuclear weapons that Russia could use in a direct conflict with the United States are battle-ready. But its stocks of warheads for shorter ranges – so-called tactical weapons that Putin might be tempted to use in Ukraine – are not, analysts say. “All those weapons are in storage,” said Pavel Podvig, another senior researcher who specializes in nuclear weapons at the UN’s disarmament think tank in Geneva. “You need to take them out of the bunker, load them on trucks,” and then marry them with missiles or other delivery systems, he said. Russia hasn’t released a full inventory of its tactical nuclear weapons and their capabilities. Putin could order that a smaller one be surreptitiously readied and teed up for surprise use. But overtly removing weapons from storage is also a tactic Putin could employ to raise pressure without using them. He’d expect US satellites to spot the activity and perhaps hope that baring his nuclear teeth might scare Western powers into dialing back support for Ukraine. “That’s very much what the Russians would be gambling on, that each escalation provides the other side with both a threat but (also) an offramp to negotiate with Russia,” Kaushal said. He added: “There is a sort of grammar to nuclear signalling and brinksmanship, and a logic to it which is more than just, you know, one madman one day decides to go through with this sort of thing.” Analysts also expect other escalations first, including ramped-up Russian strikes in Ukraine using nonnuclear weapons. “I don’t think there will be a bolt out of the blue,” said Nikolai Sokov, who took part in arms control negotiations when he worked for Russia’s Foreign Ministry and is now with the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation. Analysts also struggle to identify battlefield targets that would be worth the huge price Putin would pay. If one nuclear strike didn’t stop Ukrainian advances, would he then attack again and again? Podvig noted the war does not have “large concentrations of troops” to target. PTI The induction of India’s first indigenous light combat helicopter, capable of offensive operations in high-altitude areas like Siachen Glacier and eastern Ladakh, marks another important milestone in the country’s march towards self-reliance in meeting its defence needs. It also marks the rise of a new self-confident India who no longer needs to import important military hardware to defend itself. To demonstrate to the whole wide world that India-made flying machines are second to none, the Defence minister Rajnath Singh himself flew a sortie in the helicopter before handing it over to the Indian Air Force. The chopper is armed with 20mm turret guns, 70mm rocket systems and air-to-air missiles, and is named ‘Prachanda’. With its tremendous power and versatility, Prachanda will not only enhance IAF’s combat capabilities but is also a big step towards self-reliance in defence production as envisioned by Prime Minister Modi, Singh said. Chief of defence staff General Anil Chauhan and IAF chief Air Chief Marshal V R Chaudhuri, among other top officials, were present at the ceremony. Complimenting the IAF, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the formal induction of the light combat helicopter (LCH), designed and developed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), into the Indian Air Force (IAF) in Jodhpur, reflected the collective resolve of all Indians to make the country self-reliant in defence equipment. Rajnath Singh observed that the induction of LCH underlines the fact that just as the country trusts the IAF, the force equally trusts indigenous equipment,” the minister said, citing the examples of the home-grown Tejas fighters, Akash surfaceto-air missile systems and Dhruv advanced light helicopters. The need for LCHs for mountain warfare was first acutely felt during the 1999 Kargil conflict with Pakistan. Two LCHs were even flight-evaluated in eastern Ladakh in 2020 amidst the still-continuing military confrontation with China there. Overall, IAF and Army require an estimated 160 LCHs in the coming years. The Cabinet Committee on Security had cleared the first contract for 15 LCHs (10 IAF and 5 Army), at a cost of Rs 3,887 crore, along with infrastructure sanctions worth Rs 377 crore, in March this year. Defence PSU Hindustan Aeronautics has produced eight of the 15 choppers till now, of which four have been inducted by IAF. The first LCH for the Army, in turn, was handed over on September 29. The raising of the Army’s first LCH squadron commenced in June. As per the delivery schedule, four more LCHs will be handed over by October and the squadron will become operational in the eastern theatre in the first week of November. These LCHs have 45% indigenous content by value, which will progressively increase to more than 55% for the next version. The LCH is touted as the only attack helicopter in its weight class in the world which can land and take-off at an altitude of 5,000-metre or 16,400-feet with a considerable load of weapons and fuel. The phased induction of these 5.8-tonne choppers will boost the capabilities of the Army and IAF against enemy infantry troops, tanks, bunkers and UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) in high-altitude areas as well as in other terrains