China’s moves in Ladakh and the South China Sea are based on a historical construct. If a Green Line crafted in 1960 by then paramount leader Mao Zedong is the People’s Liberation Army’s objective in Ladakh, it is the 9, 10 or 11 dash line (depending on political convenience; the concept has dubious historical basis in the Sino-French war) that is the target of the Red army in South China Sea.

The PLA’s main enemy in the South China Sea is a competing super-power, the US, which is backing Taiwan, even as the members of the ASEAN look the other way. Its adversary in Ladakh, adjoining sensitive and restive Tibet and Xinjiang, is a rising power, India whose neighbours Have all become increasingly cozy with Beijing in recent years .

Although the ambitious western theatre commander of PLA, Zhao Zongqi, portrayed the Indian Army as an aggressor or a war monger after Monday’s clash at the Rezang La — Rechin La ridgeline, the fact is that Indian troops are only preventing the Chinese from reach their outrageous Green Line claim in the south of Pangong Tso. The Indian Army did the same on August 29-30, and at the same spot. It is quite evident that there is a short-term and a long-term context to the latest clash, both of which are familiar to commanders on the ground.

Also read: India refutes China’s LAC allegation, says Chinese soldiers fired in the air

Clearly, the latest PLA aggression is aimed at teaching the Indian Army a lesson for using the Special Frontier Force, largely comprising Tibetans-in-exile, on the front line in the August clash. What has upset Beijing the most is that the sacrifice of a Tibetan SFF JCO Nyima Tenzin in the battle on August 29-30, something that has become a rallying point for Tibetans all over the world and sparked a new life to the resistance against the Chinese occupation of the region. To make matters worse, the SFF proved its worth in high mountainous terrain.

However, the long term objective of China is to destabilize India by putting continuous pressure along the 3488 km Line of Actual Control (LAC), fully knowing its impact on Indian polity and on the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. On August 12, 2013, Shyam Saran, a China expert and then Chairman of National Security Advisory Board, submitted a report to the Prime Minister’s Office that PLA had grabbed more than 640 square kilometres of land in Ladakh by first denying India patrolling rights, and then occupying the territory by advancing the perceived LAC. Saran mentioned that the loss of territory was in Depsang, Chumar and Pangong Tso and pointed out that after the April-May 2013 PLA incursions, Indian troops could not patrol four points (10 to 13) in Depsang Bulge. The Saran report said that PLA had built a road to Raki nullah in the Depsang plains, and taken 70 km of territory in Pangong Tso over the previous months. This leaves the Narendra Modi government no option but to militarily contest the PLA nibbling of the LAC or lose political equity by ceding territory to Communist China.

India is facing a triple whammy from China. First, its economy has shrunk 23 per cent in first quarter due to the coronavirus pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China. Second, the economic cost of putting the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force on war-like alert with emergency purchases is significant and mounting each day. It is quite evident that the Chinese economy can afford this deployment, and Beijing would like to tire out the Indian Army and economically bleed India till such time status quo ante is restored in Ladakh. The PLA is an expert in tiring out the enemy since the Korean war. Third, the country it is using its all-weather ally Pakistan to provoke India on the Line of Control (LOC) through cross-border firing and terrorist infiltration. Had it not been for umbilical ties between India and the Nepalese army, Beijing may have well been successful in activating a fourth dimension to bleed India.

While the PLA’s attention is today diverted on two fronts with the US activating the Indo-China front, with Australia and Japan, India will feel more military pressure in Ladakh should the US position change after the country’s presidential elections in November. Europe is still to understand the rise of China, which has close economic ties with EU powerhouse Germany. The big picture for India appears to be grim at the moment in context of China but the country will be in pole position if it can ride over this round of Chinese checkers.