The five-year term of Pakistan’s government led by Imran Khan was supposed to end today. According to its constitution, elections must be held within 60 days of the dissolution and a caretaker government is supposed to be installed to carry out day-to-day work till the next election. But of course, nothing in Pakistan happens as it ought to and on Wednesday, the National Assembly was dissolved after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recommendation to President Arif Alvi. Shehbaz Sharif, became prime minister last year after Khan was ousted after a vote of no confidence. (No Pakistani prime minister has completed a full term till date)
Since the lower house was dissolved in advance, fresh elections must now be held within 90 days instead. The next step in the process is for the prime minister and the opposition to get together and announce the interim caretaker for the government. Sharif held talks with Leader of the Opposition Raja Riaz Ahmad Khan from Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) on Thursday and Friday, but the two sides had not come to any conclusion as this newsletter was being written.
Simultaneously, Khan is fighting his conviction in a graft case. An Islamabad trial court on Saturday found him guilty and sentenced him to three years in jail. The former cricketer is now lodged in a colonial-era jail in Attock on the outskirts of Islamabad.
In Pakistan, a conviction disqualifies a lawmaker from public office for a period determined by the election commission (EC), and on Tuesday, Pakistan’s EC suspended Khan for five years, meaning that, at the moment, he has no chance of running in the upcoming election. But Khan is not about to go down without a fight. He has approached both the Islamabad high court and Supreme Court in the hopes of overturning the verdict.
That Khan remains unable to run would bode well for Shehbaz Sharif, brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif (who himself has been banned from running for life), and his party. Khan is extremely popular in the country, and has led a popular campaign against the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) since his ouster in April last year, calling thousands of supporters to the streets. As a result, more than 140 of cases have been slapped against him across the country on charges like terrorism, violence, blasphemy, corruption and murder.
Former prime minister Imran Khan sits in a wheelchair after he was shot and wounded during in Wazirabad, as he led a long march in November calling for snap elections. (Reuters)
At his end, Khan has accused the ruling coalition – led by Shehbaz Sharif – of colluding with the US and Pakistani military to remove him from power. Ironically for a politician once criticised for being under the thumb of the powerful military establishment, his ouster came amid signs of worsening relations between him and former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
On Wednesday, The Intercept released what it said was a diplomatic cable of a conversation between the US state department officials and Pakistan’s ambassador to the US alleging that it proves Khan’s claim. As per the report, the US, concerned by Pakistan’s relationship with Russia, encouraged regime change. (Khan landed in Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin the day Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine.)
The Biden administration has made no secret of its dislike of Khan and US-Pakistan relations suffered under the former premier’s leadership. But there is no way to independently verify the veracity of The Intercept’s report and the timing as well as the reason for the leak – the report said the cable was obtained from a disillusioned military member – among other reasons, appear circumspect. At the same time, parts of Khan’s claims are not entirely outside the realm of possibility. The US has a well-documented history of covert and overt interference in regime change. The Pakistani military’s intrusion into politics is also well-known.
The disorder in the highest echelons of the Pakistani government is roiling the country amid a worsening economic situation. The country is battling dwindling foreign exchange reserves, rising external debt and liabilities, and soaring inflation (28% for July). Rising energy and food prices combined with shortages compounded by political instability have created a bleak reality for the average Pakistani citizen.
Zooming out
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif addresses lawmakers during the last session of current parliament, in Islamabad, on Wednesday. (AP)
The situation in Pakistan is viewed through the prism of several key issues. Firstly, instability in nuclear-armed nations is generally considered unfavourable for reasons that we can all understand. A declining law and order situation is a common outcome of such disorder, and, in Pakistan, can mean an uptick of terror activity.
For example, the terror group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been particularly active this year after it ended an indefinite ceasefire agreed with the government in June 2022.
It was no doubt emboldened by the rise of the Afghan Taliban and has carried out several deadly attacks over the past couple of months, including one in the Police Lines area of Peshawar in February when more than 100 people were killed.
A report by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) last week said there had been a 79% increase in the number of terror attacks in the country in the first six months of 2023 compared with the same time last year. According to the report, 271 militant attacks occurred during the first half of 2023, killing 389 and injuring 656 people.
Shoes of victims are gathered after a suicide bomber attack, in the Bajur district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, in July. (AP)
The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region has been impacted the most due to these attacks, it said. In July, a suicide bombing at a political rally in the province that killed over 50 people was claimed by the Islamic State terror group (ISIS). “Factions of TTP, as well as IS-K (Islamic State – Khorasan), will take advantage of the unstable political situation for carrying out more attacks against security forces,” Syed Akhtar Ali Shah, a former police chief in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province told Al Jazeera last week.
Rising terror activity is also attributed to the state’s dual policy towards terror groups, wherein it uses some terror groups and terrorists for regional influence, while cracking down on others. In the New Delhi Declaration of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in May, members noted the “inadmissibility of interference in the internal affairs of states under the pretext of countering terrorism and extremism,” and the “unacceptability of using terrorist, extremist and radical groups for mercenary goals”. As former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton once said that Pakistan cannot “keep snakes in its backyard” and “expect them to only bite” its neighbour.
Several countries, including India and the US (which recently reoriented its security strategy to focus on the Indo-Pacific) are also wary of the growing proximity between Pakistan and its “iron brother” China. At the SCO summit, India did not join Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in reaffirming support for Belt and Road Initiative, China’s flagship connectivity initiative, which New Delhi has long-opposed because a key part of it, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Much has also been said, by India as well, on the rising burden of debt on countries participating in the initiative. Pakistan’s growing economic crisis and deteriorating relationship with the US also risk pushing it further towards Beijing. At the same time, the political instability threatens Chinese investment in the country.
Adding to all this, there are indications that the next election in the country could be delayed beyond the 90 days with the election commission set to start redrawing hundreds of constituencies based on a fresh census. For Pakistan, this means the end to this state of flux is hard to predict, and the world has to remain wary yet.
That’s all for this week, folx. If you have any suggestions, feedback, or questions, please write to me at sanya.mathur@hindustantimes.com