Greater sensitivity in handling India’s relations with neighbours will lead to a better entente with them.
In his recent meetings with visiting leaders of the neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean Region — Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Mauritius, Nepal, Seychelles and Sri Lanka — on the sidelines of his swearing-in ceremony, Narendra Modi reaffirmed the ‘neighbourhood first’ policy he enunciated at the beginning of his first term as Prime Minister in 2014. According to a Ministry of External Affairs press release, Modi promised to work for regional peace, progress and prosperity in close partnership with neighbours. He called for deeper people-to-people ties and more connectivity.
Connectivity is indeed the key to regional cooperation and integration, as it promotes sustainable and better-distributed growth across a given region. It encompasses a range of public goods, including investment in inter- and intra-regional projects, across trade, transportation, information and communication technologies, energy and people. All these, underpinned by appropriate infrastructure, facilitate the free and unfettered flow of goods, services, investments, persons, ideas and technology.
India shares its land or maritime boundaries with China, the South Asian countries of the Indian subcontinent and Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia. Its neighbourhood extends on its land frontiers from the Hindu Kush in the west to the Irrawaddy in the east. In the oceans, it stretches from Suez in the west to Shanghai in the east.
Good relations with neighbours are a priority for India’s foreign policy. An unstable contiguity is distracting and bad for business, and it encourages meddling by outside powers. “It is our neighbourhood,” said Modi at the Combined Commanders’ Conference in December 2015, “that is most critical for our future and our place in the world.”
This was manifest in India’s active pursuit of ‘neighbourhood first’, Act East, Connect Central Asia, Link West policies; its participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the I2U2 Group and in conceiving the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor; and its determination to commit to security and sustainable development in the Indian Ocean. Modi paid bilateral visits to Kathmandu and Colombo, not visited by previous Prime Ministers for 17 and 28 years, respectively. His first visit was to Bhutan, and by about mid-2015, he had completed visits to some Indian Ocean countries and to all Central Asian Republics.
However, during Modi’s tenure as PM, in contrast to India’s relations with the great powers and its leadership in the Global South, there has been an overall regression in India’s relations with its immediate neighbours, despite New Delhi continuing its development partnerships, accelerating project implementation, extending grants and loans and providing humanitarian and technical assistance.
The cultural closeness of South Asia — people speaking the same languages or belonging to the same ethnicity or religion on both sides of India’s boundaries — has counterintuitively reinforced a sense of distinctiveness of its neighbours from India. Psychological partitions of perception and identity have reinforced the physical fractures of South Asia.
On its margins, the subcontinent is bristling with terrorism and insurgencies. India’s neighbouring countries diverge in many ways: geographically, socially, economically, demographically, and most of all, politically. Many of them suffer from endemic social strife and political instability. It does not help that they are significantly more unequal in growth, resources, population and size than neighbouring countries in any other part of the world.
While there is likely to be more continuity than change in the substance and style of Modi 3.0’s foreign and security policies, there is scope for improvement concerning South Asia. Greater sensitivity in handling India’s relations with neighbours will lead to a better entente with them.
Coalition politics might compel the BJP to temper Hindutva, which has caused misgivings in many parts of South Asia, such as Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan and even Nepal, an erstwhile Hindu kingdom and now a secular republic. The stability of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) depends upon two staunchly secular leaders, Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, who have a considerable Muslim support base. Although the primary players in the Indian Government remain the same and the BJP’s partners are not invested in foreign policy issues, the optics of the NDA coalition will improve India’s standing in the neighbourhood.
Without actively courting Pakistan, the NDA government might respond to friendly overtures and re-engage with the caveat that intractable bilateral issues can only be resolved as a function of improved mutual perceptions and relations, not the other way around. Nawaz Sharif’s congratulatory message to Modi, appealing to “replace hate with hope”, is a positive portent.
Adversarial relations between India and China are likely to persist, as Beijing seems in no hurry to restore the status quo ante in eastern Ladakh. Yet, India will not view China as an enemy to be fought militarily. India, with its friends, will try to rein in China’s assertiveness and persuade it to follow international rules and rebalance relations peacefully.
The time has come to revive the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has had just 18 summits, the last one in Kathmandu a decade ago. That summit had given the go-ahead to national, regional and sub-regional measures and arrangements. Both the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal Initiative and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation must be re-energised.
The objectives outlined in Modi’s ‘neighbourhood first’ policy are ambitious, and the impediments are many. Getting things right with neighbours is an arduous process, often with uncertain results. There is no alternative to trying, however. India cannot walk unfettered on the global stage without better relations in its contiguity.