Pak faces grave security issues along its borders with Afghanistan & India too

game plan: Sharif is hoping to get the US in his corner during the Saudi meet.

THE past 18 months have seen a bitter power struggle in Pakistan between the elected government led by Nawaz Sharif and his former army chief, the overbearing Gen Raheel Sharif, who was desperately seeking an extension. His ambitions were sidestepped and his ego assuaged by getting him appointed as the head of a Saudi-led military alliance of 41 Sunni Islamic countries. With the Panama Leaks exposing his vast foreign assets, Sharif remains under pressure from a less than sympathetic Supreme Court, which has appointed a committee of civilian and military officials to further investigate the charges.To add to Sharif’s woes, he came under new pressures. In an act of brazen defiance and indiscipline, the army publicly challenged a notification issued by the PM’s office to deal with the leak of information in Dawn newspaper. With a somewhat more rational army chief now holding office, Nawaz has been able to ward off challenges from the army for the present. But he will have to expend considerable time and effort in dealing with the Supreme Court and charges of corruption. There is, however, little doubt that if he successfully deals with these issues, he can overcome challenges posed by Imran Khan’s PTI and Asif Ali Zardari’s PPP, and win the parliamentary elections in 2018, even though the economic situation is fragile, with external debt growing rapidly.Pakistan now faces serious challenges to peace and security along its land borders with Iran, Afghanistan and India. While Pakistan’s borders with India and Afghanistan have been traditionally disputed and tense, troubles on its borders with Iran grew as Pakistan got drawn into the American ‘war on terror’. Iranian Sunni extremist groups were armed and trained in Pakistan to attack targets across the Balochistan-Iran border. The Iranians allege CIA-ISI involvement in these attacks by a group called ‘Jundallah’, whose present-day version goes by the name of Jaish-ul-Adl (army of justice). Barely a fortnight ago, the Jaish-ul-Adl mounted a cross-border attack on the Iranian town of Mirjavejh, near the Balochistan-Iran border, killing 10 Iranian soldiers. After a visit by the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Jarif, produced only Pakistani platitudes, Iran’s army chief Major-General Mohammad Baqueri warned that his forces would attack terrorist havens within Pakistan unless Rawalpindi stopped cross-border attacks. These developments coincided with escalating tensions across the disputed Pakistan-Afghanistan border, leading to casualties on both sides and an assertion by President Ashraf Ghani that he would not visit Pakistan. The Taliban, meanwhile, stepped up its ‘spring offensive’ across Afghanistan. Pakistan, in turn, accused Afghanistan of fomenting terror across the Durand Line in collusion with India. In the meantime, the unpredictable and inconsistent Trump administration has indicated it will be enhancing its military deployment in Afghanistan and increasing Afghan firepower. Iranian foreign minister Jarif arrived in Kabul on May 7 amidst these developments. He called for greater cooperation between Kabul and Tehran in combating terrorism, adding: ‘There is no such thing as good terrorists and bad terrorists.’ His Afghan counterpart Rabbani, in turn, asserted that Afghanistan wants neighbouring countries to work on dismantling the sources of funding of terrorist groups.It is now evident that with expectations of Russian and Chinese backing, Pakistan intends to continue its support for the Taliban. We need to have some candid discussions with our Russian friends on this at the highest level. While Sharif may want to meet  Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Kazakhstan, it would be naïve to believe that the Pakistan army is going to relent on its fomenting terrorism and violence in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere in India. Given the fact that the Pakistan army and Sharif are evidently not on the same page on the Kulbhushan Jadhav affair, India will have to wait and see if Sharif has the political space to spike the army’s intentions to continue on its present path on this issue. Moreover, there should be no relenting on taking all available measures, overt and covert, to make Pakistan pay heavily for its adventurism in J&K. In the light of these developments, Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia for a get-together of the 41-member Sunni military alliance, during the Saudi-Trump summit is clearly designed to avail of the occasion to persuade Trump that Pakistan will be a steadfast ally in his war against the IS and ‘radical Islam’. Will Trump, the avowed master of cutting ‘deals’, be impressed by such posturing, given his distrust of Pakistani policies on Afghanistan? Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia is primarily to boost American arms sales, cut deals in the energy sector and encourage the tough posture that Deputy Crown Prince Salman has adopted towards Iran and Yemen. Despite his loathing for Gen Raheel Sharif, Nawaz will miss no opportunity to impress Trump with the fact that a Pakistani general is commanding the ‘Islamic alliance’, while asserting Pakistan’s commitment to fight terrorism globally. But it is clear that Pakistan’s enthusiastic participation in a Saudi-led, American-backed alliance is not going to please Iran.These are issues that are going to shape Indian diplomacy significantly in coming months. New Delhi will need to discuss measures to squeeze Pakistan on its support for cross-border terrorism, in discussions with Iran and Afghanistan, both bilaterally and trilaterally. Our unusual decision to publicise cuts in our oil imports from Iran needs to be reviewed, even as we press Iran to discard its reluctance to fulfil its commitments on Indian participation and investment in its energy projects. Delays in moving ahead in the development of Chabahar Port need to be addressed at the highest level. PM Modi has shown considerable skill in carrying out a delicate diplomatic balancing act in the Gulf and West Asia by developing good ties with all major players — Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran and Egypt. These skills will be fully needed and tested while dealing with the emerging scenario across our western neighbourhood.