At the beginning of the month, before the current crisis, Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s prime minister, rued that his
country’s historic “99.999%” dependence on Russia as security partner had amounted to “a strategic mistake”.
The self-declared republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist from next year. Azerbaijani victory last week has
triggered a huge exodus of ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh and marked the end of decades of conflict,
and potentially the end of centuries of Armenian presence in the region.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a notable geopolitical setback for Russia, traditionally Armenia’s partner and ally. The Guardian
Armenia is angry and the western media feels that it is likely to pivot westwards. Going by Ukraine’s experience, it is
not an easy trip. Also, with a long-established Russian base at Gyumri, a rapid realignment is likely to be impossible. It
is best for Armenia to forget Nagorno- Karabakh and, forgive Russia.
While stronger countries like Ukraine and Azerbaijan are willing and able to challenge Russia as never before. Russia’s
inability or lack of desire to protect Armenia may not seriously affect geopolitics of the Caucasian region:
• Georgia is progressively getting friendly with Russia. Also, they show no great interest to reclaim either South
Ossetia or Abkhazia (officially part of Georgia, but have separate governments and are unrecognized by most
countries. Both are supported by Russia).
• Moldova, with its own Transnistria separatists, is not ready to challenge Kremlin.
A geopolitical setback for Russia?
There are over half a million Azeris in Russia and a large diaspora of Russians in Azerbaijan – the largest in the region.
Interestingly, two days before the invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan President, Ilham Aliyev travelled to Moscow to sign
an alliance with Vladimir Putin.
Vallah!!!!!! (Turkish for expressing surprise). Azerbaijan is also importing gas from Russia which should enable it to
meet its own domestic demand and export its own produce to Europe. When questioned, SOCAR (Azerbaijan’s state
gas company) said that it has long cooperated with Gazprom (Russian gas producer and exporter) and the two are
trying to optimize their infrastructure by organizing the mutual exchange of gas flows.
Strangely, a number of Russian peacekeepers (2000 stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh) were killed in Azerbaijan’s recent
attack on Nagorno-Karabakh. President Aliyev rang up Kremlin to apologise, and the matter appears largely resolved.
Geopolitics, well, going by the definition there has definitely been a change in the region’s geography and political
boundaries. The question whether there has been a notable setback for Russia would be music for the west, a contra
view may make the notes more sombre.
South of Azerbaijan lies Iran, one of Russia’s few close allies. The three countries have agreed to build a new rail
corridor along the Caspian Sea that would link Russia with ports on the Persian Gulf; a trade route to rival the Suez
Canal, a lifeline for two sanctions-hit countries. The railroad’s construction is being funded by Russia and will pass
through Azerbaijan as a critical link.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan is not seeking EU membership. While it has been a partner of NATO since 1992 and an
associate member since Nov 2022; Azerbaijan is not a member of NATO.
Conclusively: Geopolitics is a complex ‘art’, difficult to understand and, it is fair to examine both sides of the coin