The absence of violence is not peace. But it would be unfair to bill Baramulla’s electoral verdict as one driven by separatist sentiments.
The results of the Lok Sabha polls in Jammu and Kashmir have been interesting. One of the things everyone is looking for is a signal for the conduct of the Assembly polls, based upon a Supreme Court direction to the Election Commission of India (ECI) to hold the polls before September 30. There was a time when it was contemplated that the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls could be conducted simultaneously. That would have been an ambitious step. The ECI’s decision was sound — in that the Lok Sabha polls would restore confidence in the conduct of peaceful elections with an encouraging turnout. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar recently said, “We will very soon start the poll process in J&K. We are very enthused by the voter turnout… J&K recorded the highest turnout in four decades at 58.58 per cent overall, and 51.05 per cent in the Valley”.
The poll results, however, have been followed by a series of terror attacks. The June 9 Reasi attack on a bus carrying pilgrims was meant to send out a message that the Assembly polls would be targeted. While decrying this and urging the security forces to undertake a large-scale offensive to dominate Pir Panjal and neutralise the terrorists, there must be no climbdown on the Assembly polls, which are due in three months.
A few issues came to the fore with reference to the J&K polls. Each constituency in Kashmir has an interesting dynamic, and delimitation added to the suspense. The inclusion of Rajouri and parts of Poonch with Anantnag constituency gave a unique opportunity to the National Conference (NC) to exploit the Gujjar surge. Mian Altaf Ahmad of the NC, the virtual spiritual leader of the Gujjar community, was tailor-made for the fight there. He won comfortably against People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Mehbooba Mufti, who also belongs to south Kashmir and is extremely influential in its prime locations at the Valley end, Bijbehara, Anantnag and Kulgam.
The Srinagar constituency includes Ganderbal in the north, Pulwama-Shopian in the south and Budgam to the west. The southern belt is where stone-throwing was most intense in 2014-19, and the terror incidents were the most marked there. The radical footprint remains dormant, biding its time for another opportunity.
The Srinagar seat has been won by Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a cleric from a prominent Shia family of Budgam. Mehdi is an old NC hand who has represented Budgam in the J&K Assembly. He identified ‘dignity’ and ‘identity’ as his core concerns. This sentiment was mostly about Article 370 being an article of faith, the Kashmiri not ever being anti-national and the need for the restoration of statehood. Mehdi’s victory against Waheed Para — the young, intelligent and well-respected youth leader of the PDP — could be a surprise for some, as support for a Shia may have been unexpected. Waheed belongs to Pulwama and Mehdi to Budgam. So, both are not hardcore Srinagar representatives. The NC’s organising capability and ‘cadres in depth’, however, do usually spell advantage for its candidates. That capability will be an advantage in the Assembly polls too.
But the same ‘cadres in depth’ and the party’s excellent organising skills have been unable to put former CM Omar Abdullah in the driver’s seat in Baramulla. If I know any part of Kashmir the best, it is Baramulla — both the city and the constituency — having commanded a brigade and a division in the area. I was a little surprised to see Omar enter the fray there. Of course, no party can claim ownership of Baramulla. It’s the gateway to the Valley from Muzaffarabad, and it has been so for centuries, while the main route lay through Uri along the Jhelum Road to Baramulla. The constituency is spread far and wide, including Gurez, Bandipora, Machil, Keran, Kupwara, Handwara, Tangdhar, Uri and Gulmarg. The outlying areas in the higher mountains along the LoC are populated by Pahadis, who have benefited from reservation, which was initially 4 per cent but subsequently raised to 10 per cent.
These areas are sparsely populated, although the communities there are all pro-India. There is no grey zone there. It’s the Valley floor with the townships of north Kashmir, where the separatist sentiment was high at one time. The decline in violence does not necessarily alter the sentiment. I have often reminded observers that ‘absence of violence is not peace’ and it’s not a change of heart either. However, it would be unfair to bill Baramulla’s electoral verdict as one driven by separatist sentiments. The Assembly polls will tell us more.
Engineer Rashid, the man who defeated former CM Omar Abdullah by over 2 lakh votes, is known as a separatist. He fought the election while lodged in Delhi’s Tihar Jail through a two-week campaign managed on a shoestring budget by his sons. I have known Engineer Rashid for a long time. He once came calling on me in a rickety Maruti 800. I was aware of his popularity among the poorer segments of Langate in Rafiabad; that is what made him famous all over the Baramulla constituency.
It is believed by some that Rashid managed to get the support of non-voters (those who traditionally kept away from voting) in the hope of conveying that they backed his separatist stance. What is important for the establishment is that the Assembly polls are conducted, and in time. The people’s verdict aimed at development and welfare needs to be adequately reinforced against any persisting sentiments of separatism, which no doubt still thrive.