Sanjha Morcha

Caught in the NSG fix US, India need to woo China

india’s application for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) has gone down to the wire. It is not just China but a group of half a dozen countries are also opposing India’s entry into the NSG without making any tangible commitments to the cause of non-proliferation. This stand translates into pressure on India to sign at least one of the tools of non-proliferation — the Fissile Missile Cut-off Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty or the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). With two not very well disposed nuclear armed neighbours, India is not inclined to oblige the six countries, popularly called the ‘nuclear ayatollahs’, for their hard line stand of insisting that India must sign on the dotted line while ignoring its stellar record in non-proliferation.China’s objection is of a different kettle altogether. Beijing’s spanner serves two purposes. One, it tries to cool India’s ardour for a military tango with the US in the South China Sea. This was evident in the Obama-Modi joint statement that completely omitted South China Sea as compared to prominent mention in their vision statement last year. Second, China does not want a situation where India gets in the NSG and then permanently locks out Pakistan because decisions in that body are taken by consensus. It has, therefore, suggested common criteria for all countries that have not signed the NPT — which essentially means India, Pakistan and Israel.After Modi rubbed China the wrong way on the border dispute, diplomats have their task cut out to persuade China to drop its insistence on a criteria-based approach. Unlike the picture being portrayed by strategic experts, China is not an unreasonable nation. In the late nineties, China had stepped up to the plate after the US and Russia had stopped supplying uranium to India and most plants were on the verge of closure. The NSG is crucial for the inflow of high technology in order to jump-start the Make-in-India project. The US and France will be beneficiaries with billions of dollars in orders for nuclear plants.  In such a situation, India will have no option but to extend an olive branch to both Pakistan and China.