Attended a lec conducted by Brig Akhil Kr Singh, c/o AHQ Pay Commission Cell yesterday at Southern Star Auditorium

Some highlights

Notification for 8th CPC Committe likely by next week.
Report submission likely between Jun to Sep 2026. May be implemented by Govt by Jan 2027 with impl from Jan 2026.

Fitment factor based in present inflation and CPI matrix likely to be 1.91 (min pay 34k approx). For more fitment factor inflation should rise upto Dec 2025.
Similar fitment factor of 1.91 for MSP and Allces.

Channel of Projection of Agenda Points by Services to 8th CPC

APCC/NPCC/AFPCC ▶ Tri Services Committe▶Principal Staff Cimmittee▶COSC▶DMA▶8th Pay Commission Committee

Some Key Issues likely to be taken Up before the 8th CPC

•⁠ ⁠Auto credit of Luggage claim and CEA based on Part 2 order. No claim reqmt.

•⁠ ⁠Enhancement of Lve accumulation limit betn 400 to 500 days as agreeable by triservices

•⁠ ⁠Air Travel On LTC for JCOs

•⁠ ⁠AC CHT for all offrs

•⁠ ⁠Assured Pension for SS offrs in line with civil counterparts akin to NPS/UPS

•⁠ ⁠MSP for JCO to be more than or equal to MNS

•⁠ ⁠X1 and X2 group to be merged for JCO/ORs. Addl cadres to be upgraded from Y to X

•⁠ ⁠Allces to be in line with Gp A services based on geographical loc

•⁠ ⁠Best beneficial Auto pay fixation without opting for it by the employee

•⁠ ⁠Concessional air travel through Form D

•⁠ ⁠Mental Stress factor to be incl in a separate allce or in R&H allce even if indl posted in peace stn but committed in activities causing stress like flood relief ops, cas evac ops, HADR ops etc.

•⁠ ⁠Cadre review after every five years akin to civilians

•⁠ ⁠Assured prom for select Col to Brig

•⁠ ⁠Same retirement age for offrs across all three services.

Dear Brig Varma,
Thank you for forwarding the update on 8th CPC from Brig Akhil Kumar Singh, the horse’s mouth of Deputy Chairman of Army Pay Commission Cell, who briefed the officers in Souther Comd HQ on 20 Apr 2025..
The Army Pay Cell is generally headed by a Maj Gen of EME.
Deputy is a Brigadier and he has two Colonels in the team and many support staff of JCOs /OR generally from clerical cadre. They operate from Sena Bhavan.
I and Col Ajit Singh Rana met the 7th CPC chairman Maj Gen (Later Lt Gen & DG EME) Kapil Agarwal and his Deputy Brig JK Rao from Engrs in 2016.
Though Tri Services Pay Commission cell makes a lot of demands on the 8th CPC, most of them are whittled down citing financial crunch.

If our Take Home Pension is 15% in Jan 2026 in 8th CPC is more than what is our Take Home Pension in Dec 2025, we should consider ourselves lucky.
Do not forget higher the Fitment Factor, higher is the pension and the Hon’ble Finance Minister will put her hand into our pockets and take away 15 to 20% as Income tax as most of us are in the highest income tax bracket. I suspect the IT rates in Fin Yr 2026-27 (to be announced on 01 Feb 2026) will be much higher than in Fin yr 2025-26. We will cough out more income Tax in Fin Yr 2026-27.

I have always maintained the demand of Central Govt Employee Unions for Fitment Factor of 2.86 from 8th CPC is far fetched. I quoted the remarks of Mr Subhash Chandra Garg, IAS (Retd), former Finance Secretary, who oversaw the 7th CPC. He said Fitment Factor of 2.86 of the Central Govt Employee Unions is like asking for the moon. His estimate is Fitment Factor is likely to be in the rage of 1.94 to 2.10.
Whatever may be the recommendation of the 8th CPC, finally it is the babus of Min of Fin who have the last laugh on 8th CPC.
I took Fitment Factor of 8th CPC in all my estimates as 1.94, 2.00 and 2.11.
I do agree it is better to peg our expectations around Fitment Factor of 1.91 as indicated by Dy Chairman of Army Pay Commission Cell.

The Fitment Factor is mostly dependent upon the DR in Jan 2026 before the implementaton of 8th CPC.
Unfortunately, the DR is dropping to very low figure of 1 or 2% every six months due to reduction in food inflation. DR in the period of Jan to Jun is only 55%. In that case the DR in Jul to Dec 2025 can be 1 or 2% more i.e. 1.56 to 1.57 (from 1.55 of Jan to Jun 2025) and in the period of Jan to Mar 2026 may be 1.58 to 1.59. I do not visualise DR going upto even 60 %.
On the other hand, the DR in Jan 2016 before implementation of 7th CPC was 125%. We are not in Jan 2026 to be likely to be even 50% of that now. That means the protected pay was 2.25 (1 + 1.25) in Jan 2016. The 7th CPC has to recommend Fitment factor close to 2.25 i.e. 2.57. The real increase in pay was only 14.20% from what was drawn in Dec 2015.

The Govt of India, in my view seeing the likely reaction of Govt employees may go for Fitment Factor at 2.00 or even may be 2.10.
What we have to understand the Central Govt Employees drawn allowances like HRA, City Compensatory Allce, Children Edn Allowance and host of other allowances including CGHS free medical care. So the Finance Ministry babus add and recommend to 8th CPC to keep the Fitment Factor around 1.91 as assessed by the Dy Chairman of Army Pay Cell.

We have to consider another factor.
The people have lost the ability to spend due to all round inflation. Many of the companies are showing negative profits as people do not have money buy new things. That forced the Hon’ble Finance Minister to reduce the Income Tax rates much lesser than what was in Fin Yr 2024-26. Her expectatioin is if she puts in more money into pockets of people they are likely to spend with that extra money saved due to reduced IT.
I have seen officers will save Rs 5,000 to Rs 15,000 per month in Fin yr 2025-26. This will tempt them to spend more and Govt of India will collect good GST on our spends.
Bad economics at times is good Politics.
The demand of merger of DA when it crosses 50% with basic pay is a good suggestion. It was placed before 7th CPC too but was not accepted by the 7th CPC.
Demand of periodicity of CPC be 5 years (in stead of 10 years) like in may State Govts if accepted is good.

The minimum pay of lowest grade employee is Rs 18,000 in 7th CPC on Jan 2016 based on the DR of 125% in Jan 2016 before implementation of 7th CPC. The same in 8th CPC is dependent upon the DR in Dec 2025 and estimated in Jan to Mar 2026 before implementation of 8th CPC.

My estimate is the 8th CPC will take minimum 15 months to 18 months to submit their recommendation. The Youtube videos made by Hony Lts / Hony Capt is 200 days. Not possible for any CPC to give its recommendations in such a short time.
Most of the time the 8th CPC will spend in hearing the representation of hundreds of Central Govt Employee Unions and even State Govt officials.
Then examination of each demand and seeing the viability needs a lot of time as any suggestion means more money.
The Secretary Expenditure in Min of Fin is the Ex- Officio of the 8th CPC who keeps advising the CPC how much to give in and how much to reject. It is all money Honey as the Americans say.

In my estimate the earliest the 8th CPC may submit report is Apr 2025 + 15 months = Jul 2026. The Govt of India takes minimum three to six months. We are not likely in my estimate to see the Circular from Min of Def /PCDA (Pensions) to come before Oct 2026 to Dec 2026.
Generally the arrears of 8th CPC are paid as per judgment of Hon’ble Supreme Court in the case of IESM Vs UOI is all family pensioners and those above 70 years will get he entire arrears in one go. Those who are younger will get in three instalments with gap between instlments being three months.

I have made some back of envelope calculations on the likely increase in pension in 8th CPC. The same is attached.
As a Brigadier with your basic pension being Rs 1,16,550 pm, my guess is you will get Rs 18,200 to Rs 19,600 over what you are likely to get in Dec 2025. This with very low DR of 1% increase in Jul to Dec 2025 and in Jan to Mar 2026 and with very low fitment factor of 1.91.
But my gut feeling is the Fitment Factor is likely to be 2.00.

warm regards,
Brig CS Vidyasagar (Retd)
75695 13350