By pushing the Chinese agenda in an insecure environment, Pakistan seeks to use fire to quieten a firestorm.

Lt Gen Retd Sanjiv Langer

RECENT attacks on multiple targets in Pakistan’s Balochistan province mark an escalation in hostilities. The attacks were a consequence of festering problems and the damage to Balochistan’s sociocultural and economic fabric. A major reason for the attacks was the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) desire to run an ambitious communications corridor from Xinjiang to Gwadar through Balochistan, a move not supported by residents of the province.

A close ally of China for decades, Pakistan has sought to use the Chinese largesse to address many of its problems. While their India-centred agenda has several convergences, Pakistan hoped that China would align with it against India. A review of the period since 1947 reveals that while China’s diplomatic and military support to Pakistan may have been overtly nuanced on occasions, its covert facilitation and huge military supplies are central to Pakistan’s operational capability and vital for Pakistan’s missile, nuclear and submarine development.

Unfortunately, strategic relations between unequals demand concessions from the less strong partner. From the act of ceding the Shaksgam valley of Kashmir to China in 1963, based on a specious boundary settlement, to the hosting of the CPEC and virtually surrendering control of northern Gilgit, the list of Pakistan’s strategic giveaways to China is long.

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Enabling the Chinese to reach the high waters of the Arabian Sea through the Khunjerab Pass on the Karakoram mountains up to the port of Gwadar has been one of the major giveaways. This mega plan promises to transform Pakistan with a goal of 2.3 million jobs, 2-2.5 per cent additional growth and an enormous upgrade of road, rail, industrial and electrical facilities. For China, its 12,000-km oil transportation journey from the Gulf gets reduced to 2,395 km, with a saving of about $2 billion a year (according to present estimates). It also negates China’s Malacca dilemma and furthers its ambition to have a base in the Arabian Sea. The heart of the CPEC projects lies in Balochistan, a province that has never been integrated and remains restive. For the Balochis, their identity, autonomy, human rights abuse by the Pakistani state and the extraction of economic gains without returns remain major troubling issues.

Historically, Pakistan has chosen alliances mostly based on security and development-related priorities. The country’s engagement with the US has given it a slew of advantages. Pakistan’s centrality to the conflicts in Afghanistan, coupled with its own convoluted priorities, however, left it more divided, scarred and economically deprived. Its flawed vision of using covert entities to get leverage in Afghanistan and seek strategic depth has unravelled. Consequently, insecurity prevails in the region, including Afghanistan. In its pursuit of powerful allies like the US and China, Pakistan has neglected to integrate the western provinces and their people.