It is the continued adverse relations with India that lend justification to the Pakistan army to exist in its present size.
PAKISTAN has been pursuing its policy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts with unabated persistence for the past four decades. Somehow, India has neither been able to tackle this problem nor find a viable counter. Of late, terrorist activity has shifted from the Kashmir valley to south of the Pir Panjal range to areas of Poonch and Rajouri as well as Kathua in the Jammu region. During this year itself, there have been at least six major attacks, including the killing of nine pilgrims in Reasi last month.
This shift is not due to any enhanced anti-terror measures taken in the Valley, but perhaps due to an unprecedented flow of tourists, which leads to financial gains for almost all sections of society, from porters to shikara owners and hoteliers. Any terror attack in the Valley would impact the inflow of tourists, which in turn will result in financial losses to the local people and their consequent slant towards terrorists.
In addition to cross-border terror attacks, Pakistan has been pumping drugs into India, more recently using drones and other means. To counter this, India needs to deploy anti-drone systems, besides working out a more effective system to check the smuggling of drugs both by sea and land routes.
The Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border are fenced, yet terrorists continue to sneak into Indian territory and inflict casualties on Indian troops, police and other personnel. To infiltrate into Indian territory, terrorists normally use nullahs and streams, which are not fenced, and sometimes make tunnels under the fence to send terrorists. Terror attacks on military establishments close to the border resulted in the setting up of extensive fencing and the raising of boundary walls around unit lines, thereby inducing in some manner a siege mindset among the troops. Terrorists who sneak into Indian territory are generally dealt with effectively, though often only after they succeed in inflicting casualties on military personnel and causing other damage.
Even the existing distressful state of political and economic conditions in Pakistan has not resulted in any pullback of this policy of ‘a thousand cuts’. Pakistan’s policy of promoting terrorism has eventually led to terror attacks on it from across its western border.
A well-evaluated policy is required to dissuade Pakistan from indulging in this game of pushing terrorists into India. This can be achieved by attempting some of the following measures.
One, deploy adequate forces and ensure effective surveillance to neutralise terrorists just as they attempt to cross into Indian territory. This may involve shifting a certain number of troops from depth areas and redeploying them along the border. There is also a need to enhance intelligence inputs. All areas up to 200-300 metres with undergrowth on the home side of the fence should be regularly checked for any tunnel opening.
Second, take punitive action against Pakistan for every terror attack. Such a policy was adopted when we carried out the surgical strikes in 2016 and the Balakot airstrikes in 2019. Earlier, the military mobilisation consequent to the 2001 attack on Parliament ended in a fiasco. These actions did not produce the desired results. Further, there is the possibility that these actions could lead to escalation, such as border skirmishes and even a major conflict. In this regard, China factor will have to be borne in mind.
Third, build friendly relations with Pakistan so that it gives up its policy on cross-border terror attacks. Good neighbourly relations can result in open trade and cooperation in a range of areas. India could even, when required, extend financial help. It is the continued adverse relations with India that lend justification to the Pakistan army to exist in its present state. Otherwise, there is no rationale for Pakistan having a military of the size it has and the consequent unaffordable burden it imposes on the country’s economy. India wants a friendly, cooperative and prosperous Pakistan. Friendly relations with India would work to a great extent in Pakistan’s favour. However, the China factor has come into play; it will work to Pakistan’s disadvantage and eventually drive it into a debt trap.
If none of the above options work, India must portray Pakistan as a terrorist state at world forums. Terror activities and treaties cannot coexist, so India needs to put Pakistan on notice that, in the event of continued terror attacks, it would abrogate the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and inform the World Bank.
In any case, this treaty, signed by the Indian Prime Minister at Karachi in 1960, is irrational and unfair to India. It gives Pakistan over 80 per cent of the waters of six rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas), with only around 19 per cent to India. Based on the ‘river basin’ principle, India should have got 35 per cent of the waters of these rivers and Pakistan 65 per cent.
If India is left with no option other than to terminate the IWT, as a first step, it should reconvert Salal dam into a storage dam and initiate work to construct a number of dams on these rivers to generate electricity and divert their water to irrigate vast barren lands in various valleys in the Ladakh and Jammu regions. In addition, we should divert the waters of the Chenab river (Chandrabhaga, as known in Himachal Pradesh) to the Beas river in the Kullu valley and further downstream into the Ravi river.
If Pakistan continues with cross-border terror attacks even after all this, India can exercise the option to flood that country during the rainy season by opening the sluice gates of these dams and shutting them during the dry season to reduce the supply of water, which will impact Pakistan’s agriculture.