Nothing substantial has evolved during the ongoing Ukraine war for any lessons to be learnt…….yet.
It has, putting it simply, remained a war of reactions rather than action, and there are many negatives much like
those in a black demo:
• The start of the war by Russia was a black demo both in the strategic and tactical sense. Every ‘Principle of War’ was overlooked; ‘overlooked’ has been used out of politeness, a harsher word would make more sense.
• The Ukrainians have their black demos too. They fire artillery in massive barrages that emulate Soviet tactics;about 2 million rounds of 155mm since the war began, nearly exhausting Western stockpiles worldwide.
NATO has advised Ukrainians to be economical; Ukraine does not accept this as a sound military advice but an acknowledgement that the West cannot produce enough artillery ammunition. Which is true. Ukrainian
artillery fires 8,000 rounds daily, consuming an entire month of current US production.
• Bakhmut was no better than a World War I slog complete with slushy trenches and scorched countryside;
both sides shooed their soldiers into battle with a simple order of ‘do or die’, it was an operation with no ‘terminal objective’.
• The much-publicized Ukrainian counteroffensive never started when it was to start … and …. when it did, it rode on the back of a few dozen NATO tanks. And, while Ukraine assembled its hardware and trooped its
forces for the counteroffensive, Russia did nothing to spoil the concentration; not that it has done much during the war with its humungous Airforce.
• Russia has held the Ukrainian counteroffensive now for a couple of months based on a defence line which is an 800 km long fortification that stretches from the border with Belarus to the Dnieper delta. It consists of
multiple layers of trenches, bunkers, minefields, and anti-tank obstacles; how primitive!
• Ukraine has now reportedly penetrated the first line of the Russian defense in spots along the southern front and taken Robotyne, a hamlet in ruins. It has cost the Ukrainian army at least a full battalion, 500 men and
30 armoured vehicles of its dwindling forces; ‘do or die’ orders apparently stay. Simply dastardly.
The Americans are candidly discussing with Kyiv ‘lessons’ learnt from the slow progress of the counteroffensive. The
bottom-line assumption that they have arrived at is that this war will probably grind into next year.
The United States and its allies promise to remain steadfast in helping Ukraine keep pushing forward rather than look for a diplomatic solution. The Americans in their view can not be seen to abandon its ally. They believe strategic patience remains the best weapon against Putin; the Arms Manufacturers have ordered the cake.
In the process Ukraine continues to be a test bed for: –
• The sale (not aid, the west does have an ethos of free lunches) of End-of-Life equipment and it’s exploitation.
• New technologies/weapon systems (Not the most recent ones because NATO would not like to lose them to
the enemy) are being tested.
• Tactics of deployment of current technology in warfare and their exploitation – Drones , Anti Drone , Anti
Tank, AI , munitions etc. Conclusively, there are not enough lessons to re – write future strategies except perhaps in the Drones and Counter
Drones sphere.
What needs to be watched is Russia’s patience. Will he wear down the Ukrainian forces and then rapidly progress
through thinned out Ukrainian lines? Or, will he use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon if pushed to the sea