On India
India is relevant to the world, not only in its size and girth but by its
footprint and what matters to the world.
Shahzad Chaudhry January 13, 2023
The writer is a political, security and defence analyst. He
tweets @shazchy09 and can be contacted at shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com
If I were Henry Kissinger, I would write a treatise ‘On India’. Such has
been the monumental change in India’s fortunes as a State and a player
principally in Asia and broadly on the global stage. Modi may be a
despised name in Pakistan, but he has done something to brand India
which none before him was able to manage. Importantly, India does what
it feels and to the extent she needs. And it all stays kosher. It is an ally of
the US; a rub Pakistanis go to town with, complaining relentlessly about
the US as its closet patron. We are delusionary and deceptive in assessing
our standing and employ double-speak as an art, vilifying the US as a
popular pastime while whingeing when it accosts India. Russia is under
American sanctions, and none can trade freely with Russia except India
which buys Russian oil on preferred terms and then re-export it to help
an old patron earn dollars the indirect way. Two opposing military
superpowers of the world claim India to be its ally. If this isn’t diplomatic
coup, what is?
It all comes from one word — relevance. India is relevant to the world,
not only in its size and girth but by its footprint and what matters to the
world. Consider. It has the fifth largest economy in the world, ahead of
the UK. It is aimed to be the third largest economy in the world by 2037.
It is fourth in FE Reserves with over 600 billion USDs — Pakistan
2
currently holds 4.5 only. Its growth rate in GDP matches the best
performing economies over the last three decades after China. She is
projected to stay on that path. India has world’s second largest army and
the third largest military. It may not be the strongest corresponding to the
numbers, but it is on path to rapidly increasing its capacity and capability.
The global list of billionaires has 140 Indians of which four are included
in the top 100.
Mittal is steel giant. Ambanis run multiple interests varying from defence
to telecom. Infosys, an IT giant, is a global name. So on and so forth. India
stands amongst the top producers in agri-products and in the IT industry.
Their yields per acre in agriculture match the best in the world. And
despite being a country of over 1.4 billion people, it remains a relatively
steady, coherent and functional polity. Their system of governance has
withstood the test of time and proved its resilience around fundamentals
essential to a resolute democracy. It may not be the most efficiently or
most equitably run society, but it has held on to anchors which have
paved the way for it to solidify what makes a nation. To many it may not
be secular enough — its Constitution still is, even if attitudes of the power
wielders are not. Under Modi it has crafted a religious-nationalist plank
of its newer assertion and identity. Don’t balk. World over the trend is of
the Right gaining eminence in social attitudes. Pakistan in this realm has
its own set of challenges. Importantly, it seems to be working for Modi
and India.
India jumped to a 100 billion USD reserves in 2004 from the measly 9.2
she had in 1992. Under Manmohan Singh, India increased her reserves to
252 billion USD by 2014. Under Modi these have galloped to over 600
billion and the GDP is sized over three trillion USDs. This is monumental
progress which makes India a preferred destination for all investors.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s fraternal brother, announced an investment of
3
over 72 billion USDs in India even as we beg her to invest the 7 billion
promised for Pakistan. Pakistan’s iron-brother, China, pledged 10 million
USD in the very latest donors conference in Geneva to help Pakistan out
of its financial predicament as well as a looming bankruptcy, as did
Pakistan’s favourite whipping boy, America. Somehow, both place equal
premium on Pakistan’s prospects.
And though Indian writers have this propensity to overstate India’s heft
and hem there should be no doubt that this century will see Asia defined
by two most dominating nations in economic strength, military
haughtiness and political impact — China and India. The gap between
Pakistan and India is now unbridgeable. India has broken free of the
shackles that kept her tied in South Asia and hyphenated in global
perception with Pakistan. Beginning with Rajiv Gandhi to Modi there has
been a clear distancing of the Indian foreign policy away from Pakistan.
That turns India more Asia than just South Asia and a clout which is far
expanded. The world has taken note and regardless how much we play
China vs India as a sorry paradigm for face-saving both are now above
100 billion USDs trade that binds them with a common aim to quickly
move to 500 billion. Those who trade at that level never graduate beyond
sticks and clubs, even if spiked, and whatever the savagery of their brawl.
It is time to smell some real leaves.
One hates to admit, but Pakistan was politically outmanoeuvred by India
on Kashmir by rescinding Article 370 of its Constitution which gave a
special if not disputed status to the region. Her gradual mutation of the
demographics in her favour continues unabated. And as the older
generation of the defying Kashmiris bows out the young view issues far
less weighed by emotive persuasion. In combination with unmatched
density of military presence over decades the new normal has practically
established newer realities. And while Pakistan’s principled stance may
4
just remain the same, work-around shall have to be found to factor in
newer realities and graduate policy to benefit from this immense
economic activity taking place in the neighbourhood. Placing artificial
restraints on what can be a moment of deliverance to the rapidly
impoverishing people of Pakistan is failing them with bankruptcy of
thought. We are better only when stabler and economically buoyant. Time
to shed the rhetoric.
India’s global footprint is remarkable. She is invited to the G7 and is a
member of the G20. It is leading a movement of the global South to
represent what is critical to equitable progress in the times of climate
change, pandemics and technology intrusion. It has a blueprint of
establishing her own domain on the foreign policy front and sticks to it
assiduously. She may seem arrogant and haughty at times triggering
aversion but feels she has the space to assert her presence. It is a fine line
but her foreign policy apparatus treads it skillfully. Modi has brought
India to the point where she has begun to cast a wider net of its influence
and impact. Pakistan has been skillfully reduced to a footnote in this
Indian script. It is time to smell some real leaves.
It is time to recalibrate our policy towards India and be bold enough to
create a tri-nation consensus, along with China, focusing on Asia to be the
spur for wider economic growth and benefit. That alone will turn
geoeconomics into a strategy. Breaking away from convention and
boldness in conception can address this newer paradigm. Or we may be
reduced to the footnote of history.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 13th, 2023.
Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all
updates on all our daily pieces