Sanjha Morcha

Persisting with talks Build insurance against another Pathankot

A year ago, no one could have predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would continue to put faith in dialogue with Pakistan despite the Pathankot provocation.  Till then, his Pakistan policy was floundering. Then the NSAs and the Foreign Secretaries met in Bangkok. The game changed, and Modi made his famous touchdown in Lahore. The dialogue in Bangkok must have produced a meeting of minds; despite Pathankot, the guns are silent on the line of control — a vast improvement over things a year ago.Pakistan too has acted differently. For once, its reflex action was not to deny the possible involvement of its citizens in the Pathankot attack. The immediate detention and questioning of Jaish-e-Mohammed leaders helped India concede “there has been considerable progress in investigations”. The two Foreign Secretaries remain in communication and the door remains open for a formal interaction in the near future. International pressure too must have played a role. The US and Russia will meet soon to discuss Syria, the Iran file is nearing closure and the quadrilateral meeting on Afghanistan will happen soon. It would not behove Modi and Nawaz to squabble and divert the attention of the big boys.Given the history of Indo-Pak ties, it does not pay to become overoptimistic. Modi can still lose face if Pakistan fails to “deliver” on Pathankot. And what if another such incident takes place? Any imponderable can upset the Modi-Nawaz understanding on persisting with talks. The answer will be to stay nimble and conduct vigorous back-channel talks, if such conversations are not already taking place. Modi has ample political capital to accomplish whatever he and his advisers have set out to achieve. With the Pak army chief almost on his side, Nawaz Sharif seems to be in a similar position. The two sides can achieve closure on some easily resolvable disputes. This will enlarge the pro-peace constituency and act as insurance against another attack or if Islamabad is unable to book the masterminds of the Pathankot attack.