This pioneering work by Sharan Grewal, based on his revised PhD dissertation, focuses on the political transformation from autocracy to democracy through detailed case studies of Egypt and Tunisia. It is based on primary and secondary sources, personal interviews with civilian and military leaders, along with surveys of military personnel. He also probes the generalisability of the theory through a cross-national analysis of all countries between 1946 and 2010. The author brings the military front and centre to the study of democratic transition and consolidation, and examines critically why some militaries support and others thwart the transition to democracy.
The mass protests in the Arab world came to be known as the ‘Arab Spring’. The protesters rallied for food, freedom and social justice and demanded an end to the decades of dictatorships. While each country’s path to breakdown was unique and multi-faceted, a critical element in every story was the role of the military. This, Grewal stresses, was not unique to the region. Militaries often decisively shape whether a transition is initiated in the first place, making or breaking revolutions, triggering defections or standing up in defence of the dictator.
Grewal is of the view that despite their centrality, militaries have been relatively neglected in the study of democratisation. Scholars have focused less on understanding militaries and their motivations and more on the underlying factors: poverty, recession, lack of education or polarisation. He argues that it has been less clear why some militaries seize these opportunities and others — “soldiers of democracy” — ignore them. Likewise, the elites may want to use the military to repress the lower classes or to help them stage increment takeovers, yet it is less clear why the military sometimes obeys and other times does not.
The author highlights an under-studied structural factor — military legacies — that shapes the chances that democracy takes root. Although some scholars have begun to explore how coup-proofing shapes the military response to mass uprisings, the author extends these studies to show how they also shape democratic transition and consolidation. He aims to refine the understanding of what shapes the military’s attitudes towards democracy.
Grewal stresses that in contrast to the popular perception that the era of military coups has passed, the reality is that the military is likely to play an even larger role in future democratic transitions.
The author comes to the conclusion that in Tunisia, a military neglected and counter-balanced under autocracy saw its position improve under democracy. In Egypt, a military empowered under autocracy saw its privileges curtailed.
In fact, Tunisian and Egyptian militaries exhibit major differences in their corporate interests, composition and professionalism. Each of these variables should shape how these militaries view the revolution and democratic transition. In Tunisia, all three factors pointed towards supporting the democratic transition, while in Egypt, they pointed towards overthrowing it, thereby validating the author’s theory that a dictator’s coup-proofing strategy can create legacies that shape the process of democratisation.
Grewal argues that the desire for democracy is universal and contagious, yet democracy is by no means guaranteed to take root. New democracies must respect the military’s interests. He concludes that the military’s behaviour under democracy is shaped by how it had been treated under autocracy. Autocrats who had empowered their militaries produce soldiers who will repress protests and stage coups to preserve their privileges. On the other, autocrats who had marginalised their militaries produce soldiers who support democratising, but who are also more susceptible to incumbent takeovers and civil wars. The dictator’s choice to either empower or marginalise the military thus creates legacies that shape both the likelihood of democratisation and the forms by which it breaks down.
The structural factors and role of the international community also have a significant place. For the author, keeping the military far from politics is typically the better option for democracy. Thus, the control of power is a shared phenomenon and cannot be the sole individual wish.
Grewal’s book reflects his meticulous analysis and highlights new aspects of power and its control, along with recommendations for the future.
MY regiment celebrated its Raising Day at Dehradun recently. Christened ‘Rendezvous 2024’, it was a soul-rejuvenating homecoming for over 250 veterans and serving soldiers, ranging from the 1960s to the 2020s. People travelled from places like Guwahati, Coimbatore, Pune, Ahmedabad, Jabalpur and Hyderabad, validating poet Robert Southey’s words: ‘No distance of place or lapse of time can lessen the friendship of those who are thoroughly persuaded of each other’s worth.’
When the movie of the regiment’s glorious past was played, every photo had a story to tell. ‘I took the telegram to your dad, and we celebrated your birth with rum and shakkarpaare amidst the booming of our guns,’ my first commanding officer (CO), a walking encyclopaedia of the regiment’s history, told me as he regaled everyone with stories of the 1971 war. Everyone had something to say about the bits of history flashed on the screen.
It was a solemn occasion when the wife of a fallen hero, a Kirti Chakra awardee, inaugurated a motivation hall named after him. He was my senior subaltern and she fondly remembered the day I received the newlyweds at Bhuj railway station three decades ago. A daughter of another officer was very curious to know all she could about her late father, who was killed in an air crash when she was still in her mother’s womb.
Ours is a ‘Khandani Paltan’, having seven second-generation officers and over a dozen second-generation jawans. The regimental photographer was quick to capture us in the frame when we got together. It was an honour to share the stage with former Cos, including my father, my first CO (son of the founder CO) and a former commander, while addressing the regiment. With my brother posted at the same station, for me it was a family reunion as well.
As we bid au revoir, everyone was brimming with gratitude to the current CO, a crowd-puller, for getting us together. His wife was in tears while handing over the goody bags with customised souvenirs to departing guests. Their well-knit team was already planning for the platinum jubilee, seven years away.
‘It is this sense of belonging and esprit de corps that differentiates you guys from others,’ said a civilian guest, overwhelmed by the camaraderie on display. A happy memory never wears out; the moments captured in our cameras will be recalled many times to relive those three days of ‘celebration of unity’.
With a 50 per cent dip in the number of students from Punjab moving to Canada after the Class XII examination this year, most educational institutes across the state have reported significantly better enrolment in various courses in the new academic session.
As many as 3.19 lakh students from India had moved to Canada in 2023 as per the data of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Of these, nearly 1.8 lakh were Punjabi students.
However, this time, various immigration companies, IELTS centres and ticketing agencies, which had seen a big boom during the past six-seven years, are currently seeing a steep downfall in their business. The grim situation these businesses are facing has, however, brought boom time for colleges and universities in the state, which had been experiencing a lot of instability for the past few years. Dr RS Deol, Director, Lyallpur Khalsa College Technical Campus, said, “The imposition of curbs on immigration imposed by Canada has comes as a huge blessing for colleges in our region. Our admissions in all courses, including BCom, BCA and BBA, are complete. We have already given provisional admission to students in the management quota for BTech. Our specialised courses in data sciences, artificial intelligence and machine learning have been getting a good response. The online counselling being conducted by IK Gujral Punjab Technical University (IKGPTU) is also getting a good response this time.”
Aman Mittal, Vice-President of Lovely Professional University, said more stringent policies of the Canadian government were proving a boon for educational institutes in the region. “On our part, we too have been counselling students regarding far better placement prospects in India for them. Our courses like those in forensic sciences, aero-sciences and block chain have been in huge demand this year,” he added.
Chandigarh, June 9
Several farmer outfits, including the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (Non-Political) and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, on Sunday took out a march in Mohali in support of the CISF woman constable, who allegedly slapped actor and BJP MP-elect Kangana Ranaut.
Adequate security personnel were deployed in the wake of the march, which began from Gurdwara Amb Sahib.
Speaking to reporters, farmer leader Sarwan Singh Pandher said there should be an impartial probe into the matter.
Asserting that it should be found out what led to the incident, Pandher said there should be no injustice with the constable.
Farmer leaders also lashed out at Ranaut for allegedly making provocative statements against the people of Punjab.
Kaur was apparently upset with Ranaut over her stance on the farmers’ protests. The CISF, tasked with providing security at airports, has also ordered a court of inquiry.
The Mohali police have booked Kaur under Sections 323 (punishment for voluntarily causing hurt) and 341 (punishment for wrongful restraint) of the IPC. Both are bailable offences.
Ranaut, in a video message on Thursday, said she was hit in the face and abused by the constable during a security check at the Chandigarh airport, the ugly fracas breaking out two days after she was elected to the Lok Sabha from Mandi in Himachal Pradesh.
In a video statement titled ‘Shocking rise in terror and violence in Punjab’ posted on X after she landed in Delhi after the incident on Thursday, Ranaut said she was safe and fine.
The constable, Ranaut had said, came towards her from the side.
“She hit me in the face and started abusing me. I asked her why she did it and she said she supports the farmer protests.”
“I am safe but my concern is that terrorism and extremism are increasing in Punjab…How do we handle that?” Ranaut had said.
Another video doing the rounds on social media showed the agitated constable talking to people presumably after the incident.
“Kangana had made a statement (earlier) that farmers were protesting in Delhi just for Rs 100 or Rs 200. At the time, my mother was one of the protesters,” she said in the purported video.
New Delhi, June 9
Following are likely to be inducted as ministers in the Narendra Modi government.
The names of ministers in Modi 3.0: Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, Jitan Ram Manjhi, Rajeev Ranjan Singh, Piyush Goyal, S Jaishankar, Nirmala Sitharaman, Dharmendra Pradhan, Manohar Lal Khattar, HD Kumaraswamy, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Mansukh Mandaviya, Bhupendra Yadav, Giriraj Singh, Ashwini Vaishnaw, Hardeep Puri, Arjun Ram Meghwal, Jitendra Singh, Jitin Prasada, Rao Inderjit Singh, Nityanand Rai, Anupriya Patel, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Krishan Pal, Chirag Paswan, SPS Baghel, Sarbananda Sonowal, Kiren Rijiju, Ravneet Singh Bittu, Ramdas Athawale, Virendra Kumar, Prahlad Joshi, Shobha Karandlje, Jayant Singh.
Capitalising on the dissatisfaction with the Agnipath scheme, Gandhi made a visit to the house of Agniveer Ajay Singh, a 23 year old who died in a ambush in Rajouri in January this year.
In Punjab, senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi made it a point to raise the Agnipath issue in his election speeches and even visited the family of an Agniveer in a village near Ludhiana who had died in an ambush in Rajouri in Jammu and Kashmir in January this year.
The demand for rollback of the Agnipath recruitment scheme for the defence services has gathered momentum after the results of the general elections were announced with even ex-servicemen voicing concern demanding its total recall.
With the results not going the BJP way as was predicted by some psephologists and the exit polls, political experts are now saying that the anger among the youth against the tour duty style of recruitment for armed forces translated into votes against the ruling coalition.
Most opposition parties, particularly the Congress, had made it a poll plank during their electoral campaign in Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan — the states that make for a major chunk of soldiers in the armed forces.
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In Punjab, senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi made it a point to raise the Agnipath issue in his election speeches and even visited the family of an Agniveer in a village near Ludhiana who had died in an ambush in Rajouri in Jammu and Kashmir in January this year.
In the past couple of days, BJP’s key allies and partners in NDA, Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), as well as Opposition parties such as Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and Samajwadi Party have raised demands that the Agniveer recruitment scheme must be revisited and that it should be rolled back.
The issue of the truncated service conditions of Agnipath scheme, which caters for only retention of 25 per cent of the recruits in permanent service while the rest are to be eased out by giving a lumpsum severance of Rs 11.71 lakh, had found much resonance in the traditional recruiting grounds of the defence services in the three northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, apart from UP, Bihar and Rajasthan.
Capitalising on the dissatisfaction with the Agnipath scheme, Gandhi made a visit to the house of Agniveer Ajay Singh, a 23 year old who died in a ambush in Rajouri in January this year. Singh was a brother to six sisters, his father is a daily wage labourer, and his mother works as a domestic help. The family resides in a one-room house in Ramgarh Sardaran village in Ludhiana.
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A day before Punjab and Himachal Pradesh went to polls on June 1, Gandhi wrote a letter to President Droupadi Murmu, requesting her to step in and ensure that all jawans of the Army get equal treatment with regard to terms of service.
“I write to you as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of India, with an appeal to provide justice to Agniveers, who lay down their lives in service to the nation. The discrimination in the nature and extent of benefits accorded to the families of our slain Agniveers, compared to regular soldiers warrants your urgent attention,” he wrote.
In this letter, Gandhi specifically mentioned his visit to the house of Agniveer Ajay. “He made the supreme sacrifice this January in a landmine blast near the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir’s Rajouri district. Like every Indian, I was heartbroken by his martyrdom. Ajay’s promising life was tragically cut short at such a young age. In addition, I was also shocked to find his family living in abject poverty. I met his six sisters, and parents, who work as daily wage labourers, in their single-room home. His family shared stories about Ajay’s life. Despite losing their son, they were proud of his sacrifice in service to the nation. However, they also described the shocking apathy and insensitivity displayed by the government in the aftermath of his death.
Ajay’s family has received none of the lifetime benefits or social security that the families of regular soldiers receive. This means they will not get a pension, medical facilities, assistance for education, or preference in employment,” wrote Gandhi.
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The Congress MP went on to state that the Agnipath scheme has led to the creation of a “lesser” cadre of soldiers who are expected to work on similar tasks with lower pay, benefits and prospects.
A day before Gandhi wrote to the Murmu, the Leader of Opposition in Punjab Assembly, Partap Singh Bajwa held a press conference flanked by two retired Lt Generals in Jalandhar where he highlighted the flaws in the Agnipath scheme. Lt Gen Harwant Singh (retd) and Lt Gen JS Dhaliwal (retd) raised the demand that the old recruitment system of the defence services should be reverted to and the Agnipath scheme should be shelved.
Following the election results and political comments made regarding the Agnipath scheme, many retired military officers have made similar demands of scrapping the scheme.
In a post on X, Maj Gen Yash Mor (retd) wrote, “Whoever forms the government in Delhi lowest hanging fruit is the total recall of Agniveer scheme. I have stuck my neck out on this disastrous scheme since it came as a “bolt from the blue”. This must be cancelled in one go. Give chance to those who were denied recruitment, give a one time waver. Hoping to get the best young people in the forces”.
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Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia (retd), who served as Director General Military Operations (DGMO), wrote on X: “The Agneepath scheme needs to be shelved. It will be a good move. The old system met the aspirations of our youth as also enhanced armed forces operational readiness and defence preparedness”.
In the Army, two batches of 40,000 Agniveers have already completed training and are under posting. The third batch of 20,000 began training in November 2023. In the Navy, three batches of 7,385 Agniveers have completed training. In the IAF, 4,955 Agniveer Vayu trainees have completed training.
Ludhiana, June 7
As many as 32 women members of Air Force Family Association, Air Force Station, Halwara, toured Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) and engaged in discussions with the experts of Skill Development Centre and various departments of the agri-varsity.
While welcoming the delegation to PAU, Dr Rupinder Kaur, Associate Director (Skill Development), shed light on the remarkable role played by the university in transforming the nation from food-deficit to food-surplus via ushering in of the Green Revolution. Elaborating, she said PAU has been instrumental in enabling the Punjab farmers to cultivate socio-economic prosperity, spanning from the post-Partition to the present times. But agriculture has not been a smooth sailing, she observed, while referring to the present-day challenges of declining natural resources, fluctuating weather and dipping farm income. With the agricultural crisis looming large, PAU is on its toes to address the agrarian issues of the farmers at the grassroots level, she added.
Dr Tejdeep Kaur, head, Department of Zoology, said the environmental concerns relating to soil, water and air pollution are one of the top priorities of PAU for agricultural sustainability. With current focus on checking stubble burning menace, presence of toxic elements in water and degradation of soil health, PAU is making rigorous efforts to provide pollution-free environment to the citizens by guiding the farmers to make environment a foremost priority for the safety of humanity.
While visiting the new orchards of the Department of Fruit Science, experts Dr Yogesh Kokkhar and Mr Ravinder Singh apprised the delegates of different fruit crop varieties of kinnow, guava, litchi, mango, ber, etc, which have scaled up horticulture in the state.
Later, they visited the Museum of Rural Life of Punjab wherein they were apprised of the celebrated and vibrant culture of the border state.
Earlier, Dr Lavleesh Garg, Extension Scientist, while coordinating the visit, informed the members about the success of the ongoing Punjab Agri Business Incubator Project, which has produced more than 100 start-ups across India.
A new government is set to take charge under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi, who is beginning his third term as the Prime Minister. Thus, continuity and consistency in major governmental policies can be expected. However, with a coalition at the helm, some transformational decisions may take a back seat. Much serious work awaits the government. Apart from the criticalities that need to be speedily addressed, the emerging security challenges across various domains will also have to be confronted.
That India faces two adversarial nuclear-armed neighbours, China and Pakistan, working both independently and collusively, has to be factored in. India’s strategic challenges extend in the west from the Strait of Hormuz, running southwards along the eastern coast of Africa to the Malacca Strait in the east, also spanning the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The Indo-Pacific region, increasingly becoming an area of strategic contestation between the US and China, also impacts India as it is one of the major players in this realm.
India has land borders exceeding 15,000 sq km, which it shares with seven nations. India also has a 7,683-km coastline and an exclusive economic zone of over 2 million sq km. Internal security challenges do emerge once in a while in J&K and some of our restive northeastern states, while a fading Naxal/Maoist insurgency still persists. China’s continuing belligerence towards India and its unending ‘salami-slicing’ tactics in the border regions are of major security concern for us. Thus, overall, India has to ensure its territorial and economic sovereignty.
Since Independence, India has witnessed major conflicts in 1947-48, 1962, 1965, 1971 and the Kargil War in 1999, apart from battling many internal security upheavals, including insurgency in the North-East and, countering terrorism emanating from Pakistan. Despite all these kinetic conflagrations, India has not yet promulgated a National Security Doctrine (NSD). Since the past many years, national security has moved far beyond military activities, prosecution of war or managing internal security problems. Today, national security embraces non-military dimensions, including terrorism, economic security, energy security, food security, environmental security and cybersecurity. National security responsibilities span more than the charter of the Ministry of Defence, calling for a “whole-of-government approach”. Most powerful nations of the world have enunciated their NSD, which lays down their priorities in a variety of fields. Though the major strategic mission objectives will be military-oriented, the NSD will comprehensively lay down prioritisation in various fields of governance and protection of national interests, apart from synergising the nation’s geopolitical, military, diplomatic, financial and technological strengths. Accordingly, the new government must lay emphasis on the formulation of the NSD with alacrity.
Another important defence reform which the newly elected government should bring to fruition is the long-awaited integrated theatre commands (ITCs) edifice for synergising the operational capabilities of the three Services. Notwithstanding the differences over its implementation by the Services, a way has to be found to get “more bang for the buck”. The government should institute a committee of serving officers, renowned veterans and civilian experts to suggest the composition, charter and geographical responsibilities of the ITCs.
As is universally known, India holds the dubious record of being the world’s largest importer of arms, ammunition and military platforms. Though the Modi government has laid emphasis on indigenisation of military hardware, much still requires to be done to achieve atmanirbharta (self-reliance in production of military equipment). The government must give a major fillip to manufacturing as per our defence requirements, synergising the work of the Defence Research and Development Organisation, public sector ordnance factories and the technologically adept private sector. Foreign manufacturers of repute should also be encouraged to shift some of their production units to India — genuine public-private sector cooperation will be of great assistance to meet Indian defence’s burgeoning needs.
The Navy’s requirements to ensure the security and independence of our sea lanes need to be met by adequate capital budget funds. Work must commence on the demand for a third aircraft carrier and additional submarine capability. Simultaneously, the strategic Andaman and Nicobar Command must be strengthened to safeguard India’s interests in the Indian Ocean and keep China’s misplaced maritime ambitions in check. One area where the government will have to arrange funds is for the Indian Air Force’s long-pending requirement of 114 fighters as its present holdings are precariously down to unacceptable levels.
Importantly, the government must oversee the three Services collectively, analysing the lessons from the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war and the Israeli-Hamas conflict. These conflicts have put to rest many traditional concepts which were being practised by many armed forces across the world. Besides the nuances of artificial intelligence and information warfare, the employment of drones, air defence systems, missiles, tanks and infantry combat vehicles need to be looked at afresh.
The government should remember that it takes time to improve defence capabilities, and procrastination in defence matters will only be at the nation’s peril. The need to strengthen all the constituents of Comprehensive National Power should be the guiding principles in our march forward to deservingly take a seat at the global high table.
Congress party’s Manish Tewari won the Chandigarh Lok Sabha seat, defeating BJP’s Sanjay Tandon, according to the Election Commission website. Tewari, the former Union minister, won by a margin of 2,504 votes, the EC portal showed. The Congress fought the Chandigarh Lok Sabha seat in an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).Counting of votes for the lone Chandigarh seat began at 8 am amid tight security arrangements.
Will take Sanjay Tandon along to make city more beautiful: Manish Tewari
After winning the election, Congress candidate Manish Tewari said he would take his rival Sanjay Tandon along to make the City Beautiful more beautiful.“There is no bitterness against my rival Sanjay Tandon. He fought a good election. I hope by cooperating with each other, we will make the City Beautiful more beautiful,” he told reporters after coming out of the counting centre in Sector 26.He talked highly of the INDIA bloc alliance in Chandigarh. “I thank a lot to all workers of INDIA, who worked hard for 45 days day and night. Due to their hard work and consistent efforts, the victory could be made possible,” said Tewari.“The INDIA bloc workers worked on ground and my victory is a testament to that,” he said. Tewari especially thanked party president HS Lucky, senior AAP leader Chandermukhi Sharma, AAP co-incharge SS Ahluwalia, leaders of the Samajwadi Party, Left and the RJD.
