When India projects an election turnout in J&K topping 54 per cent, and also speaks of returning normalcy, it’s time for hackles to rise in Pakistan. Every hybrid function of war then comes into play

by Simantik Dowerah

In the last 35 years in Jammu and Kashmir, what Pakistan has indulged in is the sponsoring of a proxy hybrid war and not some predictable conventional operation. How does one characterise this type of war? There are no timelines, no declared victories and defeats, and the foot soldiers of the sponsor are all irregulars, many times supported by regulars out of uniform. This is the first and foremost thing that the common man in India must understand.

Hybrid operations are conceived to cause disruption, both in the civilian and military domains, with an intention to frustrate the adversary and force him to carry out responses which are irrational and do not fetch long-term dividend, just short-term reprieve from situations. They remain dynamic and progressively build on these successes. Setbacks are accepted and the return is with tweaking of strategy. In the case of Pakistan, the origin of the orders to conduct disruption and turbulence are mired in a grey zone because of the layers that exist in the decision-making process and a more than active deep state wanting to control things.

The unfortunate and most regrettable targeting of civilian pilgrims travelling to a shrine in the Jammu region on June 9, 2024, which led to the death of nine pilgrims and injuries to 30 more obviously had a method in the madness. Pakistan and its deep state, over the last five years, have been rendered almost irrelevant in the narratives that matter in J&K and outside.

However, despite having neutralised many networks comprising terror financing, narcotics, radical and ideological, media and over-ground workers (OGWs), the stakes for Pakistan continue to be high. Its capability to conduct effective acts of terror or control the population and the narratives remain limited, especially in the Kashmir Valley. However, its concept of proxy war being hybrid, it still remains a major stakeholder. Thus, when India projects an election turnout in J&K topping 54 per cent, and in the same breath speaks of returning normalcy, it’s time for hackles to rise in Pakistan. Every hybrid function of war then comes into play.

With the above backdrop, Pakistan watched the tide of India’s successful democracy on display, a coalition government formed and inaugurated within five days. One of the layers of decision-making in Pakistan probably decided that the June 9, 2024, inauguration event of the NDA 3.0 was an adequately significant event, riding on whose news worthiness the terrorists could strike and make their statement.

The planning should have been for the Kashmir Valley but the targets there are far and few. A mass effect was the intent and that would mean a large number of fatalities. In Kashmir, due to the extra strong counter-infiltration grid and the distances from the LoC to the hinterland being 100 km and more, the potential to find targets that matter is difficult. Pakistan cannot plan for terrorists to ambush a bus on the Kupwara-Baramulla road, for example, because the victims will all be Muslim; that is not going to fetch any dividends and in fact will send a negative message to the Kashmiri population. The same action on the Reasi-Katra road will cause fatalities and injuries to Hindu pilgrims who travel to Vaishno Devi and other shrines in the region which has a mix of Hindus and Muslims in the population. That is the Pakistani intent; it will raise the communal temperature inside India. It’s also easier to execute such an operation since infiltration is simpler here and the presence of the Army and other security forces (SF) is of a lower density.

Twenty-four years ago, on 19 March, 2000, then US President Bill Clinton readied himself to address a Joint Session of India’s Parliament. A night before the address 36 Sikhs were gunned down by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in a village called Chittisinghpura, in Anantnag district. The idea was to convey that Pakistan was a relevant player in J&K, even as the source authorising such strikes remained in the grey zone. In the Reasi strike and three lesser intensity strikes thereafter, obviously Pakistan remains in denial while an abstract group (The Resistance Movement or TRM) with a name which is a euphemism for LeT, claims credit. The grey zone is intact and that is the strength of the hybridity of operations that Pakistan launches.

These operations are independent of the situation within Pakistan. The economy may be in shambles, its polity even worse, the internal security situation remains abysmal and the Afghanistan border is alive. In the midst of all this Pakistan seeks opportunities to ensure that its 35-year investment in J&K does not go waste due to the success of India’s five-year-old strategy (since August 5, 2019) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It looks to re-establish its relevance in the eyes of the population of J&K and it perhaps believes that it can achieve that with patience and a long-term perspective. That is the bottom-line explanation for what has happened at Reasi and the area around.

There is only one other angle which needs to be factored in as a reason for the terrorist strike. The elections for the J&K Assembly are due to be held. The Supreme Court has directed the Election Commission (EC) to conduct this election before 30 September, 2024. Already the Lok Sabha election proved a run-away success with average 54 per cent voting, a phenomenon not witnessed for long.

Successful assembly polls will sound the death knell for Pakistan and its cohorts. They have to be disrupted and there are opportunities coming up in the short term, in the form of the Sri Amarnath Ji Yatra (SANJY) commencing on June 29, 2024. The Yatra bears an ideological and a sentimental chord which is extremely sensitive. Such a situation had arisen in 1999 too, at the height of the Kargil War when a disruption of the Yatra was sought by Pakistan through induction of a large number of terrorists. In some areas of Kashmir even regular Pakistan Army officers from its Special Forces infiltrated and led operations in the Lolab and Handwara sectors.

Clearly, we have a lot more on our plate than one could have anticipated. Perhaps it’s because of this that the experienced and highly respected former Army Chief, General VP Malik, has publicly recommended the postponing of the assembly polls. General Malik has obviously considered all the above and going by his experience of handling J&K in some of the most turbulent times one cannot wish away such opinion. However, given our success in J&K since August 5, 2019, a postponement may upset the conceptual momentum that has gathered over time and project weakness on our part especially at a time when Pakistan is considered strategically extremely weak.

We may risk moving ahead with the assembly elections by ensuring we secure ourselves completely and issue a stern warning to Pakistan (all the layers that control it) that India’s threshold of tolerance has already lowered. Any further Pakistan sponsored actions will only attract a retribution which will remain unpredictable; most importantly that India was willing to bear the full consequences of its response and actions thereafter. A section of people in India may consider this a weak approach. That is not so; it’s the most pragmatic strategy that prioritises the development and integration route of J&K.

This essay did not discuss any aspects of security and how India should focus on it. That is a separate domain which takes into consideration the inter se priority between regions and sub-regions within the UT, the current deployments and need for more if required. The 35-year experience of handling these operations gives us a lot to lean upon and the Indian Army will need the full energy of its new leadership to make things work the way it has always done in the past.

The writer is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority

Holds meet on J&K ahead of Amarnath Yatra, Army Chief among attendees

Close on the heels of serial terror attacks and encounters in the Jammu region, Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday held a five-and-a-half-hour-long review meeting to take stock of the security situation in J&K and preparedness for the Amarnath Yatra commencing from June 29.

After two separate meetings — the first from 11 am to 2 pm on J&K security and the second later in the day on the Amarnath Yatra — Shah directed security agencies to replicate in Jammu division the success achieved in Kashmir through ‘Area Domination Plan’ and ‘Zero Terror Plan’.

“The government is committed to setting an example by cracking down on terrorists through innovative measures,” a Union Home Ministry statement said after Shah directed all agencies to work in a mission mode and ensure quick response in a coordinated manner.

Sources said the direction of counter-terror response in the Jammu region would involve a crackdown on local sympathisers of foreign terrorists, boosting intelligence gathering capacities in the area, firewalling anti-infiltration grids and ensuring heavy deployment of personnel on the ground.

Shah said the fight against terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir was in its decisive phase and the recent incidents showed that terrorism had been forced to shrink from highly organised acts of violence to a mere proxy war. “We are determined to root it out as well,” the minister said, urging seamless coordination amongst security agencies, identification of vulnerable areas and redressal of security concerns of such areas.

The meeting followed a spate of violence in Jammu region, starting with the terrorist attack on a bus carrying pilgrims in Reasi, killing nine and injuring 33. This was followed by three separate encounters in Kathua and Doda in which one CRPF jawan and two militants were killed and seven security persons injured. The encounters led to Prime Minister Narendra Modi asking the national security establishment to deploy the full strength of India’s counter-terrorism capabilities in the UT.

Sources said the meeting took note of the fact that a majority of the recent terror attacks in Jammu had been executed by perpetrators from Pakistan. Plans are in place to deploy around 500 companies of the Central Armed Police Forces in Jammu, especially ahead of the Amarnath Yatra.

“Attempts have been underway for some time to destabilise the Jammu region. We have seen a spate of attacks on security personnel, higher frequency of infiltration and attacks on Jammu’s locals,” a source said, flagging particular vulnerability of Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu.

The meeting was attended by NSA Ajit Doval, J&K L-G Manoj Sinha, Chief of Army Staff General Manoj Pande, Home Secretary Ajay Bhalla, Director of Intelligence Bureau; senior Army officers, including Chief of Army Staff (designate) Lt General Upendra Dwivedi, the Directors General of CAPFs and the J&K Chief Secretary and DGP.

Shah hailed the security agencies and the J&K administration for the successful conduct of the Lok Sabha elections, which witnessed a record participation of voters. He said an improvement in the law and order situation in J&K was reflected in the record inflow of tourists in Kashmir. He instructed agencies to be vigilant and ensure sufficient deployment of security personnel for Amarnath Yatra.

The memories of past attacks on Amarnath Yatra still linger in the minds of the people and the security establishment. On July 10, 2017, eight Hindu pilgrims returning from the Amarnath cave shrine were killed when militants opened fire on their bus in Anantnag. In 2019, devotees were asked to curtail their stay after the detection of a landmine with Pakistan ordnance factory markings and an M-24 American sniper rifle with a telescope on the route of the pilgrimage. The yatra earlier witnessed militant attacks in 2006, 2002, 2001 and 2000. In 2023, the Amarnath Yatra spanned over the longest period of 62 days with 4.7 lakh devotees paying obeisance. In 2022, 3.65 lakh pilgrims undertook the yatra over 43 days, up from 3.42 lakh in 2019

Search operations continue | Perpetrators of Doda, Reasi terror attacks still at large

Arjun Sharma

Jammu, June 16

While it is being believed that the terrorists behind the attack on a village in Kathua’s Hiranagar on Tuesday evening might have infiltrated from the International Border (IB) manned by the BSF, the security forces are working not just to avoid infiltration bids, but have also come up with a multi-pronged strategy to eliminate threat in all areas.

Locals told to remain vigilant

• During his visit to Kathua on Saturday, J&K DGP RR Swain urged village heads to ask people to closely examine suspicious movements and truthfully report details to avoid and reduce the chances of chasing wrong leads, because “the number of police and security personnel are limited”

Besides focusing on blocking the terrorists’ infiltration routes, which are currently yet to be known, the forces are holding search operations in forest areas and questioning suspects, including overground workers (OGWs), for any leads. Two terrorists were killed during encounter in Kathua on the intervening night of last Tuesday and Wednesday. Surprisingly, two consecutive attacks were also witnessed in Doda district on the evening of Tuesday and Wednesday, in which several security personnel were left injured.

The perpetrators of these attacks are still at large. The terrorists behind the attack on a bus of pilgrims in Reasi on June 9, in which nine people were killed, are also out of reach of the security forces.

Several meetings of senior Army, police, CRPF and BSF officials have taken place in the recent days to take stock of the security situation in the view of the upcoming Amarnath Yatra, which will begin on June 29. Multiple search operations continued even on Sunday in Reasi, Doda and Kathua districts in the forest areas. Intelligence failure has also been a major issue of discussion during the meetings of security forces as there is no information about the ultras behind the attacks in Jammu. Besides the recent attacks, three ambushes have taken place on the vehicles of military in Poonch in the last one year.

Sources said the Army has also strengthened its security grid along the Line of Control (LoC) which runs through Rajouri and Poonch. However, the Kathua encounter indicates that infiltration had occurred from the IB, which is guarded by the BSF. After crossing the IB, the terrorists usually reach the mountainous districts of Jammu and later enter into the Kashmir valley. The two ultras killed during the Kathua encounter had run out of water and reached a village, where locals raised alarm.

The police have now urged the locals in sensitive areas to remain vigilant and inform the police about any suspicious movement. During his visit to Kathua on Saturday, DGP RR Swain urged village heads to ask people to closely examine suspicious movements and truthfully report details to avoid and reduce the chances of chasing wrong leads, because “the number of police and security personnel are limited”.

“The J&K police, along with other security forces, are responding to each and every piece of intelligence seriously, and are working tirelessly to achieve desired results,” the DGP had said.

New Delhi: The Indian Air Force’s Rafale fighter jets carried out complex missions along with F-16 and F-15 combat aircraft at a multi-nation mega military exercise in Alaska in the US. The key takeaways from participating in the Red Flag exercise for the IAF included insight on interoperability with international partners and a collaborative understanding of missions in a multinational environment, the defence ministry said on Sunday.

The IAF contingent participated in the exercise from June 4 to 14.

Besides the Indian Air Force (IAF), the exercise witnessed the participation of the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF), the UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF), the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF), the German Luftwaffe, and the US Air Force (USAF).

“The transatlantic ferry of Rafale fighter aircraft was enabled by the IL-78 air-to-air refuellers while the transportation of personnel and equipment was undertaken by C-17 Globemaster aircraft,” the ministry said.

Red Flag is an air exercise conducted with multiple scenarios designed to provide realistic combat settings.

This was the first time the IAF Rafale aircraft participated in this exercise. The Rafale jets operated alongside F-16 and F-15 aircraft of the RSAF and the USAF respectively.

The missions included Beyond Visual Range (BVR) combat exercises as a part of large force engagements (LFE) in offensive counter air-and-air defence roles, the defence ministry said in a statement.

It said the IAF crew members were actively involved in mission planning and also assumed the role of mission leaders for designated missions during the exercise.

“In spite of the challenging weather and almost sub-zero temperatures, the IAF maintenance crew worked diligently to ensure serviceability of all the aircraft throughout the duration of the exercise and all assigned missions could be undertaken with more than 100 sorties being flown during the exercise,” the ministry said.

“Key takeaways from the exercise included insight on interoperability with international partners and a collaborative understanding of employment philosophy in a multinational environment,” it said.

“Experience of ferrying long distances, while undertaking air-to-air refuelling enroute, was both an enriching and thrilling takeaway, especially for the younger crew,” it said.

The ministry said undertaking its return journey, the contingent split enroute along with their mutual support elements to participate in exercises with air force elements of Greece and Egypt, before landing back in India on June 24.

“Enriched with the Red Flag exercise experience, the IAF keenly looks forward to hosting the participating contingents from other countries during Ex-Tarang Shakti-2024, which is the first ever Indian multinational air exercise to be held later this year,” it said.

(With Inputs From Agencies)

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INDIA TO CARRY OUT HIGH ALTITUDE TRIALS OF INDIGENOUS SHORT-RANGE AIR DEFENCE MISSILESSUNDAY, JUNE 16, 2024 BY INDIAN DEFENCE NEWS

New Delhi: Amid the large-scale requirement for shoulder-fired air defence missiles, DRDO is going to carry out trials of the indigenous shoulder-fired air defence missiles before handing them over to the Indian Army for user trials.

The Defence Research and Development Organisation has been developing Very Short Range Air Defence missiles to meet the requirements of the Indian Army and Air Force to tackle aerial targets like fast-moving drones, fighter aircraft and helicopters in border areas.

DRDO is looking to carry out high-altitude trials of the Indigenous tripod-fired short-range air defence missile in mountainous regions like Ladakh or Sikkim, defence officials told ANI.

After successful completion of the trials, the missile system will be handed over to the users for their trials and assessments, they said.

The missile system has been able to lock on and take out both long-range and short-range targets.

The issues with the short-range targeting have been sorted out and the system is moving ahead progressively, the officials said.

Indian forces, with the Indian Army in the lead, have been trying to fulfil the shortages of different types of very short-range air defence missiles in their inventory.

The Indian Army is progressing in two cases worth ₹6,800 crore for developing Very Short Range Air Defence (VSHORAD) systems indigenously, amid a lack of inventory of shoulder-fired missiles to tackle aerial threats from Pakistan and China.

The current VSHORAD missiles in the Army and Air Force’s inventory are all equipped with lR homing guidance systems, while the Igla-1M VSHORAD missile system was inducted in 1989 and was planned for de-induction in 2013.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed

Widening trust deficit a stumbling block

Four years since the first face-to-face military confrontation between India and China in over five decades, the shadow of the Galwan valley clash of June 15, 2020, looms large, hugely impacting the strategic calculus of the two countries. India lost 20 Army personnel in the clash in eastern Ladakh. Beijing has acknowledged only four casualties, though western researchers put the figure at 40. A resolution of the border stalemate, especially the standoffs in critical areas, remains a contentious issue. A series of military and diplomatic engagements have yielded little. There’s now a sense of permanence to the massive military build-up on both sides. Heavy weaponry has been inducted by India to counter the relentless offensive posturing by China; land and air connectivity is seeing an upgrade along the entire Line of Actual Control. The trust deficit has only widened. It is to no one’s advantage.

To Beijing’s call for normalisation of ties beyond the border dispute, New Delhi has steadfastly held on to its stance that the relationship cannot be normal without restoring the status quo ante along the border as of April 2020. Is there a way forward? Amid the entrenched positions, it is difficult to imagine any toning down of the belligerent posturing and rhetoric by Beijing. The prospects of a constructive dialogue on critical regional and global issues appear remote amid the border tensions. For India, the options are limited. It has to stay the course on bolstering its defences, reducing dependence on Chinese imports and protecting its digital sovereignty.

The appointment of the Chinese ambassador to New Delhi after 18 months may suggest a willingness to explore a fresh start to reduce the tensions. But as experience has shown, India cannot afford to lower its guard. 

US, UK, France, Japan, Australia among 10 participants

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, June 16

India will host its first-ever multination air exercise later this year. The Indian Air Force said on Sunday it looked forward to hosting Exercise Tarang Shakti 2024, the first-ever Indian multinational air exercise.

Sources say among the countries sending their air force combat contingents are the US, the UK, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Singapore and the UAE. The exercise will thus have members of the Quad — India, the US, Japan and Australia. It will also have the UK, France and Germany, which are among the top air forces in Europe, and all allies of the US-led NATO. Singapore and the UAE are key partners of India.

The exercise will be held in two phases. The first will be conducted in the southern part of India in the first fortnight of August and the second will be held in August-end to mid-September. Both phases will entail almost four weeks of drills.

The IAF announcement came a day after its pilots ended their participation in Exercise Red Flag 2024 in Alaska, US. The 10-day exercise (June 4-14) comprised an advanced aerial combat training. It saw the participation of the IAF, Republic of Singapore Air Force, Royal Air Force of the UK, Royal Netherlands Air Force, German Luftwaffe and the US Air Force.

Patiala: Former AAP minister for freedom fighters and defenc ..

1,THE MINSITER ALSO RECOMMENDED DISMISSAL OF GURDIAN OF GOVERNANCE STARETD BY CAPT AMARINDR SINGH

2. HE HAS ALSO RECOMMENDED REMOVAL OF DY DIRECTOR OF SAINIK WELFARE BOARD AND NOW ALL 24 DISTRICTS SAINIK WELFARE BOARDS ARE WITHOUT DY DIRECTORS RESULTING ESM AND WIDOWS FACING HARDSHIPS FOR PAPER WORKS ABOUT PENSIONS ETC

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/111009777.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Fauja Singh Sarari has been accused of misusing funds meant for welfare of ex-servicemen

or their widows and orphan children by allegedly making the Sainik Welfare Department

purchase two air tickets of Rs 39,800 for his personal use on Dec 9, 2022.
Sarari, who resigned as a minister in Jan last year following corruption allegations — he was allegedly heard in an audio clip of “fixing a deal to extort money — was asked by the department on June 6, 2023, to repay the amount. According to a letter (a copy of which is with TOI), the department mentioned that on “his verbal orders two tickets costing Rs 19,900 each from Ahmedabad to Chandigarh were booked through Uniglobe Shergill Travels and payment was made by taking loan from flag day fund”. “So, it is requested to repay the amount to the department,” the letter had said.
Later, there were unconfirmed reports that Sarari handed over a cheque of the amount to the department, but there was no official confirmation.

Punjab Defence Services Welfare director Brig B S Dhillon (retd) said he was unaware of the matter as he was not in-charge at that time. “I would check if any repayment has been made,” he added. When asked if there was any provision to use the fund for personal purposes by the department’s minister or authorities, Dhillon replied, “I do not think so. The authorities might have thoughtfully considered giving a temporary loan for the purpose although the fund is meant for welfare services of ex-servicemen.” Sarari, when contacted, said, “I do not remember about any purchase of air tickets. What is the business or role of yours or the media in this matter? It is a matter of the department. You are disturbing me as I am busy somewhere.”
Recently, Defence Services Welfare Officer Association in a letter to Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann has blamed Sarari of misusing the department funds during the Gujarat assembly elections in 2022.
Fund utilisation objective
The objective of the ‘flag day fund’ is to give financial assistance to ex-servicemen or their widows in penury or their orphan children, to disabled ex-servicemen or those above 65 years of age in penury, ex-servicemen incapacitated by ailments or serious accidents, blind, bedridden, suffering from terminal diseases or affected by any calamity or terrorist blast. Director Defence Services, Punjab, is authorised to sanction a temporary loan up to Rs 1 lakh at directorate level and DSWOs of Rs 10,000 at district level.

The so-called Kattar Imandar party’s lies about zero tolerance against corruption again stand exposed. Former @AAPPunjab minister Fauja Singh Sarari has been again accused of misusing funds meant for the welfare of ex-servicemen or their widows and orphan children by allegedly making the Sainik Welfare Department purchase two air tickets of Rs 39,800 for his personal use on Dec 9, 2022. Earlier his name was cropped up in an extortion call case. The AAP govt has failed miserably to take action against its tainted minister—PRATAP SINGH BAJWA ON X TWITTER

Partap Singh Bajwa

@Partap_Sbajwa

US, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Singapore and the UAE to attend the mega exercise

New Delhi, June 16

India will host its first-ever multi-nation air exercise later this year. The Indian Air Force said on Sunday “it looks forward to hosting Ex-Tarang Shakti-2024, which is the first-ever Indian multinational air exercise to be held later this year”.

US, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Singapore and the UAE are among the countries that are sending in their Air Force fighting contingents, sources said. This means the exercise will have members of the Quadrilateral, or the Quad – India, US, Japan and Australia. It will also have UK, France and Germany – among the top air forces in Europe and all allies of the US-led NATO. Singapore and UAE are key partners of India.

The sources said the mega exercise will be held in two phases—the first will be conducted in the southern part of India in the first fortnight of August, while the second phase will be held from August-end to mid-September. Both phases will entail almost four weeks of drills. The scope of the exercise in each phase shall be different.

The IAF announcement came a day after its pilots ended their participation in “Exercise Red Flag 2024” at Alaska in the US. The ten-day exercise (June 4-14) was an advanced aerial combat training exercise.

It saw the participation of the IAF, the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF), Royal Air Force (RAF) of the United Kingdom, Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF), German Luftwaffe, and the US Air Force (USAF).

The IAF said its contingent at “Exercise Red Flag” participated with the Rafale aircraft and personnel comprising of aircrew, technicians, engineers, controllers and subject matter experts. The transatlantic ferry of Rafale fighter aircraft was enabled by the IL-78 Air to Air Refuellers (AAR), while the transportation of personnel and equipment was undertaken by the C-17 Globemaster aircraft.

“Red Flag” is an air combat exercise conducted with multiple scenarios designed to provide realistic combat settings.

The IAF’s Rafale jets operated alongside the F-16 jets used by the Singapore Air Force and the US Air Force. India’s Western neighbour uses the same type of plane.

The missions included Beyond Visual Range (BVR) combat exercises as a part of Large Force Engagements (LFE), in Offensive Counter Air and Air Defence roles. The IAF crew were actively involved in mission planning and also assumed the role of Mission Leaders for designated missions during the exercise.