ISRAEL launched a tit-for-tat attack on Iran on Friday, days after Tehran unleashed drones and missiles on Israeli territory. The development has raised the spectre of a wider West Asian conflict amid the prevailing hostilities between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hamas. The reverberations of the Iran-Israel confrontation are already being felt beyond the region, with the benchmark Brent crude price rising to above $90 a barrel before falling a bit. This is a matter of concern for India, which imports over 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements. A steep hike in global oil prices could significantly raise the country’s oil import bill and make the rupee depreciate due to the larger outgo of foreign exchange. It’s the purchase of cheaper oil from sanctions-hit Russia that helped India reduce its import expenditure over the past year or so.
Supply disruptions caused by geopolitical turbulence have prompted India, the world’s third biggest oil consumer and importer, to firm up plans to build its first commercial crude oil strategic reserve. Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd, a special purpose vehicle created by the government, has invited bids for constructing an underground storage facility in Karnataka. However, the project is expected to be completed only by 2029-30. In the immediate future, India will continue to be heavily dependent on oil imports. The resilience demonstrated by the country in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war is now being put to the test by the shocks originating from West Asia.
India has been quick to express concern over the ‘new emerging realities’ and has noted that any escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran will threaten peace and security in the region. A global economic upheaval can be avoided if neutral countries like India impress upon both sides the vital importance of exercising restraint.
Vice Admiral DK Tripathi appointed Indian Navy Chief
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After the war, there was a great deal of debate in Pakistan on miscalculations that led to the conflict and in India on the national security gaps.
Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd)
Former Northern Army Commander
ON February 20, 1999, then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee embarked on a landmark diplomatic visit to Pakistan at the invitation of his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif. The next day, the two PMs signed the Lahore Declaration, embodying their shared vision of peace and stability between their countries and of progress and prosperity for their peoples.
The declaration was enthusiastically hailed on both sides of the border, emerging from the shadows of the 1998 nuclear tests that had heightened tensions. Regrettably, the optimism turned out to be illusory. Even as Sharif was greeting Vajpayee at the Wagah border, Pakistani soldiers were crossing the Line of Control (LoC) in the Kargil sector and entrenching themselves on heights like Tololing and Tiger Hill, names that would become ingrained in public memory.
The geography of Kargil, with heights reaching 18,000 ft, posed extraordinary challenges. The war in such extreme conditions was a true test of resilience, and success was achieved because officers and soldiers displayed superhuman tenacity and a willingness to die for the country.
After the initial discovery of intrusions on May 3, a bloody battle lasted nearly three months before India declared victory on July 26. The Pakistan army denied involvement in the fighting and refused to acknowledge its fallen men, an ultimate dishonour to their sacrifice.
Although limited in scale and geographical spread, the Kargil War prompted a deep strategic analysis in both countries. There was a great deal of debate in Pakistan on the miscalculations that led to the conflict and in India on the national security gaps, including an intelligence failure due to which intrusions went undetected. Looking back, we can now assess how effectively the lessons that were learned have been applied by both countries.
Three days after the war, the Indian government constituted the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) to review the events leading to the Pakistani aggression and recommend measures to safeguard national security against armed intrusions. The committee noted that the political, bureaucratic, military and intelligence establishments had developed a vested interest in the status quo. It emphasised the need for a comprehensive review of the national security system, considering the Kargil experience, the ongoing proxy war and the nuclearised security environment.
The Group of Ministers’ (GoM) report, which followed the KRC, was arguably the most comprehensive examination of national security issues undertaken in independent India. Four task forces were established to evaluate the intelligence apparatus, internal security, border management and defence management, underscoring the seriousness of the post-war assessment.
The two reports led to many changes in the management of national security. The National Technical Research Organisation was formed in 2004 to handle centralised communication and electronic intelligence. The Defence Intelligence Agency was formed to cater to the military’s specific intelligence needs. A multi-agency centre was set up to foster better inter-agency information-sharing and coordination.
The defence establishment underwent some restructuring. This included the creation of an Integrated Defence Staff, the founding of the Strategic Forces and Andaman and Nicobar Commands, and the devolution of financial and administrative powers to the three services. The appointment of the Chief of Defence Staff, as recommended by the GoM, was made in 2020.
Some recommendations remain only partially implemented. The GoM had noted: “Multiplicity of forces on the same border has also led to a lack of accountability on the part of the forces. To enforce accountability, the principle of ‘one border, one force’ may be adopted while considering the deployment of forces at the border.” This principle has yet to be applied to the Line of Actual Control with China, where the Indian Army and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police are deployed under different command arrangements.
The GoM pointed out weaknesses such as the absence of a national security doctrine and the lack of commitment of funds to the military beyond the financial year. Other problems that needed to be addressed were greater integration of the service headquarters into the government and jointness in the armed forces. These shortfalls persist.
On the Pakistani side, there was much public debate on the Kargil debacle. The war exposed the skewed nature of civil-military relations, where military objectives were framed without political and diplomatic considerations. Nasim Zehra, in her book From Kargil to the Coup, writes that the army gave then PM Sharif the first detailed briefing on the operation on May 17. By this time, soldiers had already occupied positions across the LoC.
After the war, the role of the Generals who plotted it should have come under scrutiny. Instead, the Pakistan military sought to shift the blame to the political leadership, and growing distrust finally led to the military coup that ousted Sharif from power in October 1999.
The Kargil fiasco brought out forcefully that Pakistan’s use of the military option against India carried no gains. Not only would India react with superior force, but the international community would isolate Pakistan over such action. Rather than finding ways to reduce tensions with India, the Pakistan army fell back on the use of terrorists, and violence escalated in Jammu and Kashmir after the war.
Many experts opined that Pakistan should refrain from becoming obsessed with Kashmir and focus on building a strong economy. Shahid Amin, a former Pakistani diplomat, wrote that the country should become ruthlessly realistic about its limitations and priorities. Pakistan’s survival must precede everything else.
Nevertheless, the core issues that drove Pakistan into an unwinnable conflict remain largely unaddressed. The military still controls the reins in the country, the rhetoric over Kashmir continues, the economy is in dire straits and state support to terrorist organisations persists.
Today, India is a far stronger nation, and a Kargil-type scenario appears unlikely. However, the 1999 conflict revealed a level of recklessness in the Pakistani establishment, and the current state of affairs in that country does little to dispel that impression.
If Israel targets our nuclear sites, won’t spare theirs: Iran
Iran could review its “nuclear doctrine” following Israeli threats, a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander said on Thursday, raising concerns about Tehran’s nuclear programme which it has always said was strictly for peaceful purposes.
Israel has said it will retaliate against Iran’s April 13 missile and drone attack, which Tehran says was carried out in response to a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus earlier this month.
“The threats of the Zionist regime (Israel) against Iran’s nuclear facilities make it possible to review our nuclear doctrine and deviate from our previous considerations,” Ahmad Haghtalab, the Guards commander in charge of nuclear security, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the last say on Tehran’s nuclear programme, which the West suspects has military purposes.
In 2021, Iran’s then-intelligence minister said Western pressure could push Tehran to seek nuclear weapons, the development of which Khamenei banned in a fatwa, or religious decree, in the early 2000s.
“Building and stockpiling nuclear bombs is wrong and using it is haram (religiously forbidden) … Although we have nuclear technology, Iran has firmly avoided it,” Khamenei reiterated in 2019.
Iran’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. “If the Zionist regime wants to take action against our nuclear centres and facilities, we will surely and categorically reciprocate with advanced missiles against their own nuclear sites,” Haghtalab said. Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to revive Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact has stalled since 2022. — Reuters
Will strike with advanced missiles
If the Zionist regime wants to take action against our nuclear centres and facilities, we will surely and categorically reciprocate with advanced missiles against their own nuclear sites. — Ahmad Haghtalab, senior Iranian commander
Indian crew of seized ship free to go, says Iran as woman cadet returns
The sole woman cadet among 17 Indian crew members of a merchant ship with Israeli links detained by Iran returned home on Thursday, while the other 16 Indian crew members on board the cargo ship have not been reportedly detained and are free to leave that country.
Modi’s guarantee works, says EAM
Woman cadet from Thrissur (Kerala) Ann Tessa Joseph landed at the Cochin International Airport, where she was received by the Regional Passport Officer.
Commenting on the development, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who had spoken to his Iranian counterpart Amir Abdollahian on the matter earlier this week, said PM Narendra Modi’s guarantee worked not just within the country, but outside as well.
“Great work, @India_in_Iran. Glad that Ms. Ann Tessa Joseph has reached home. #ModiKiGuarantee always delivers, at home or abroad,” EAM Jaishankar posted on X.
Iran’s Ambassador to India Iraj Elahi said the Indian mission was given consular access to the Indians by the Iranian authorities. The other 16 Indian crew members onboard the ship had not been detained and they were free to leave Iran, Elahi added.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said it was in touch with the Iranian authorities to ensure the safe homecoming of the remaining Indian crew members of the vessel MSC Aries.
“With concerted efforts of the Indian mission in Tehran and the Iranian government, Indian deck cadet Ann Tessa Joseph from Thrissur, Kerala, who was among the Indian crew members of the container vessel MSC Aries, landed safely at the Cochin International Airport today afternoon,” said an MEA statement.
“The Indian mission is also in touch with the Iranian authorities in ensuring the wellbeing of the remaining crew members,” it added.
“The Indian mission in Tehran remains seized of the matter and is in touch with the remaining 16 Indian crew members. They are in good health and in contact with their family members in India,” it added.
The 17 Indians were part of the 25-member crew of the ship. The other members are Filipino, Pakistani, Russian and Estonian. The Israel-linked merchant vessel was seized by Iran on April 13, for allegedly violating maritime laws.
Iranian missiles, drones fired at Israel bore Chinese stamp
Major components used in missiles and drones fired by Iran at Israel on Saturday night were of Chinese origin. Iran’s attack was repelled collectively by Israel, the US and the UK as they shot down 99 per cent of the 300 missiles and drones.
The task was relatively eased out as the US and UK have been tracking China for decades and knew the capacities of the ammunition carrying “kamikaze” drones and the expected trajectories of the ballistic missiles used by Iran.
The US Department of Defence has been producing annual reports on China’s military prowess. The intelligence agencies track China and threats posed by it.
Red written all over
China exported anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, fighter jets, tanks and anti-tank guns to Iran
Played key role is setting up Iran’s missile technology, transferred missile guidance systems
Signed an agreement in 1996 to sell parts to Iran’s Defence Industries Organisation
‘Shahed’ drone powered by engine made by Beijing Micropilot UAV Flight Control Systems
Iran’s largest missile factory near Esfahan built with China’s assistance
On Saturday, Israel multi-layered air defence system kicked in and was aided by interceptor missiles fired by US ground stations in West Asia, fighter jets and even warships stationed in the Mediterranean Sea, west of Israel.
Iran’s “Shahed” armed drone that is capable of destroying itself at a target is powered by an engine made by Beijing Micropilot UAV Flight Control Systems. The Chinese company provides the same to Mado Import and Export Company Ltd, Iran.
All missiles use sensors, seekers and optical instruments for navigating and hitting targets with precision. The missiles fired by Iran carried components that were produced by three Chinese companies — Wuhan IRCEN Technology Co Ltd, Raybeam Optronics Co Ltd and Sunway Tech Co Ltd. These three companies supply parts to Iranian companies — Rayan Pardazesh Pezhvak Company, Rayan Laser Test Company and Rayan Electronic Farda Company
China has officially exported to Iran anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, fighter jets, tanks and anti-tank guns. Just after the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, China played a pivotal role is setting up the former’s missile technology. Chinese transferred hundreds of missile guidance systems and computerised machine tools to Tehran and in August 1996, signed an agreement to sell Iran’s Defence Industries Organisation things like gyroscopes, accelerometers and equipment needed for components for missile guidance.
China then started training and technology in construction of missile production facilities. Iran’s largest missile factory, located near Esfahan, was originally built with China’s assistance.
Started in 1987-88, this facility served as an assembly site for Iran’s SCUD-B missile kits. In addition to production assistance at Esfahan, China has also helped build a ballistic missile plant and test range east of Tehran, and is suspected of producing solid-fuel rockets at an Iran’s defence facility.
THE encounter in Chhattisgarh’s Bastar division on Tuesday, resulting in the killing of 29 Maoists, underscores the government’s efforts to contain the Naxal menace. While the operation marks a significant victory in the fight against Naxalism, it also serves as a reminder of the persistent threat posed by left-wing extremism. Continuous vigilance, especially in the light of the upcoming elections, is the need of the hour. The operation, conducted by a team of the District Reserve Guard and the Border Security Force, has shown the effectiveness of intelligence-driven strategies in neutralising Naxal threats. The recovery of a substantial cache of arms and ammunition is a big blow to the Naxal network.
With Naxalism posing a significant threat to development, peace and the future of the youth in the affected areas, a concerted government campaign to tackle the problem is underway. It is evidenced by the steady decline in Naxal violence over the past few years. A multi-pronged approach, encompassing security measures, development initiatives and community outreach, reflects a comprehensive strategy aimed at addressing the root causes of left-wing extremism. Initiatives such as the Aspirational Districts Programme demonstrate a commitment to holistic growth in Naxal-affected regions.
However, the prevalence of improvised explosive devices remains a weighty threat, highlighting the need for relentless demining operations. Also, allegations of fake encounters conducted by security forces need to be probed. Proactive steps and sustained vigilance are needed to pave the way for long-term peace in the disturbed areas. As the nation braces for the elections, heightened security measures are imperative to ensure the safety of voters and the smooth conduct of the electoral process, particularly in regions vulnerable to Naxal violence.
Major breakthrough ahead of Lok Sabha poll as 3 powerful IEDs seized in J-K’s Poonch
Three ready-to-use improvised explosive devices (IED), each weighing between three to 20 kgs, were recovered from a terrorist hideout in the border district of Poonch on Wednesday, officials said.
They termed it a “major breakthrough” ahead of Lok Sabha election in Jammu and Kashmir.
The IEDs, planted inside steel containers of five-kg, 10-kg and 20-kg capacity, were found hidden inside a cave hideout during a joint search operation by the police, CRPF and Rashtriya Rifles in the forest area of Sanai-Gursai in the Mendhar sub-division, the officials said.
They said the bomb disposal squad later destroyed all the three IEDs in a controlled explosion, scuttling terrorists’ plan to carry out blasts in the Union Territory.
“We received an input about the likely hideout and suspicious movement in the upper Sanai at 4 am and subsequently launched a joint ‘search and destroy’ operation with the Special Operations Group (SOG) of Jammu and Kashmir Police and Rashtriya Rifles.
“Three IEDs, one weighing 15 to 20 kgs, second eight to 10 kgs and third three to five kgs, having two mechanisms for initiating charge were recovered and destroyed,” CRPF officer Rajnesh Yadav said.
Yadav, who is second-in-command of the 246th battalion, said the seizure of the IEDs foiled terrorists’ plan to carry out an attack.
“This is an election time and terrorists are always on the lookout to disrupt elections by carrying out any sensational act,” he told reporters at the scene.
The officials said no one was arrested during the operation which concluded with the safe disposal of the seized IEDs.
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General Upendra Dwivedi, PVSM, AVSM (30 Jun 2024 to Till Date)
